Tải bản đầy đủ

Class 11 and class 12 (extra) japan’s economic development 2018

Class 11 and Class 12 (Extra)
Japan’s Economic Development
Table of Contents
I. Pre-conditions for Modern Economic Development in Japan
II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic Development
1. Long-term Economic Growth ~A Comparative View~
2. Cyclical Economic Growth Swings vis-à-vis Economic Events
Before WWII : 1885~96 Upswing, 1897~1903 Downswing,
1904~18 Upswing, 1919~28 Downswing and 1929~36 Upswing
After WWII : 1945~56 Downswing, 1957~69 Upswing, 1970~75
Downswing and 1976~87 Upswing
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

1


Class 11 and Class 12 (Extra)
Japan’s Economic Development
III. Post-war Economic Recovery and Accelerated Growth (1945~69):
A Closer Look at Its Specific Causes
1. Specific Causes of Economic Recovery and Accelerated Growth

➢ 7 Causes
IV. Japan’s Economic Development and Contributive Factors ~Implication
for Developing Countries~
1. Ad Hoc/Transient Factors
➢ 14 Factors
2. Basic Factors ~Factors of “Social Absorptive Capacity”~
➢ 8 Factors
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

2


I. Pre-conditions for Modern Economic Development
in Japan
State of Affairs before 1886
• Political and Economic Institutions
The class system dissolved in 1869. Introduction of modern taxation from “rice paid as tax”
to “money paid as tax”. The central bank: namely, Bank of Japan was established in 1885
by Meiji Government.
• Human Resources
The literacy rate was 45% for male and 15% for female in 1868.The public education
started in 1872 and the enrollment ratio was as high as in UK by 1900. High moral human
resources as corruption-free political leaders and entrepreneurs.
• Social/Economic Indirect Capital
The road network between Edo (Tokyo) and 200 regions (local clans) was developed, the
sea transportation networks of Japan Sea coast and Pacific Ocean coast as well. The rice
irrigation system covered all over Japan. Telecommunication services started in 1870, postal
services in 1871, and railway services in 1872.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

3


I. Pre-conditions for Modern Economic Development
in Japan
State of Affairs before 1886
• Agriculture Sector
Agri-sector occupied 72% of total population → Supply sources of labor to modern industrial sector.
The domestic agri-technologies developed. The average annual growth rate was 1.7% from 1878 to
1885. 20% of agri-products were traded in the market→ Development of merchandizing and


distribution. The class system dissolution (1869) and liberalization of land trade (1872) → Free
movement of farmers (labor forces)
• Manufacturing Sector
The textile industries (cotton and silk production) emerged with domestic technological improvement
of European technologies→ e. x. Tomioka silk filature factory. Nationalization of machinery and
metal industries, then their privatization. The growth rate of the sector 3% on an average from 1878
through 1885.
• Commerce and Finance Sector
The commercial sector was fairly developed during Edo period → Merchants and bankers/brokers in
200 clan states. Bank of Japan (1885)’s positive impact on finance and commerce. Introduction of
modern company systems; e. x. “limited company system” in 1899.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

4


II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic
Development
1. Long-term Economic Growth ~A Comparative View~
• Average growth rate of national income and Per Capita Income were 3.6%
and 2.5%, respectively. The highest growth rate among the then developed
countries. (see Table 1 next slide)
• The Japan’s Per Capita Income in 1886 was 60% of UK or 29% of USA in
1886. But in 1999, it jumped up to $35,715, while USA $34,049 and UK
$24,548.
➢ Why the Japanese economic performance was that remarkable? It is said
that the “Late-comer’s Advantage” as well as satisfactory pre-conditions for
modern economic development, which are closely related to “Social
Absorptive Capacity” worked well for Japan’s successful economic
performance.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

5


Table 1 Long-term Economic Growth, Population Growth and Per Capita Income
Growth (International Comparison)

Country

Japan
USA
Canada
Sweden
Australia
Denmark
Norway
Italy
Germany
Netherlands
Switzerland
UK
France
Belgium

Period
1885/89-1963/67
1834/43-1963/67
1870/74-1963/67
1861/69-1963/67
1861/69-1963/67
1965/69-1963/67
1865/69-1963/67
1895/99-1963/67
1850/59-1963/67
1860/70-1963/67
1910
-1963/67
1765/85-1963/67
1831/40-1963/67
1900/04-1963/67

Years
78
125.5
93
100
100.5
98
98
68
110.5
100.5
55
180.5
128.5
63

Annual Growth Rate
G(Y)
G(N)
G(Y/N)
3.6
1.1
2.5
3.6
2
1.6
3.5
1.8
1.7
3.2
0.6
2.6
3.2
2.2
1
2.9
1
1.9
2.8
0.8
2
2.8
0.7
2.1
2.7
1
1.7
2.5
1.3
1.2
2.3
0.8
1.5
2.2
1
1.2
2
0.3
1.7
1.9
0.5
1.4

Note: G(Y) Economic Growth Rate, G(N) Population Growth Rate, G(Y/N) Per Capita Income Growth Rate
Source: Minami (2002)

Development Finance, MPP, VJU

6


II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic
Development
2. Cyclical Economic Growth Swings vis-à-vis Economic Events
Before WW II (Figure 1 and Table 2)
• 1885-96 Upswing Period in Growth Rates
• 1897-1903 Downswing Period in Growth Rates
• 1904-18 Upswing Period in Growth Rates
• 1919-28 Downswing Period in Growth Rates
• 1929-36 Upswing Period in Growth Rates
➢ Economic events during each period above should be referred to the
main text handout.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

7


Figure 1 Japan’s Long-term Economic Growth

Development Finance, MPP, VJU

8


Table 2 Japan’s Economic Growth, Population Growth and Per Capita Income Growth
Period
1989-1900
1901-1910
1911-1920
1921-1930
1931-1938
(1889-1938)
1950-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-1997
(1950-1997)

Economic
Growth
Rate
2.8
2.14
3.75
2.5
4.88
3.13
8.04
9.89
4.64
3.93
2.15
6.01

Population
Growth
Rate
0.96
1.16
1.28
1.43
1.2
1.19
1.28
1.09
1.16
0.55
0.3
0.92

Per Capita
Income
Growth
1.84
0.98
2.47
1.07
3.68
1.93
6.76
8.8
3.52
3.37
1.85
5.09

Source: Minami (2002)

Development Finance, MPP, VJU

9


II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic
Development
2. Cyclical Economic Growth Swings vis-à-vis Economic Events
After WW II (Figure 1 and Table 2 )
• 1945~1956 Downswing Period in Growth Rates ~Post-war Recovery Period~
▻ The expansionary policy employed to reconstruct the war-torn country:
“Priority Production System (1946)”, “Reconstruction Finance Bank (1947)” As a
result, inflationary trend emerged.
▻ Dodge’s Line (Fiscal Retrenchment Policy & Tight Money Policy) → Inflation
was controlled, yet production dropped and unemployment surged.
▻ Korean War (6/1950~6/1951): War demand saved Dodge’s Line problems.
▻ LARA, UNICEF, CARE, GARIOA/EROA and World Bank assistance.
▻ Economic Planning Agency was established (1955). “Five Year Economic Selfsupport Plan (1956-60)” in 1955, “New Long-range Economic Plan (1958-62)” in
1957. (Appendix: Japan’s Economic Dev. Plans after W.W.II)
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

10


Table 3 Japan as Recipient ~Foreign Assistance to Japan~
Total Amount of Aid in US$ (and
J¥)

In terms of Today's Price of Total
Amount of Aid in US$ (and J¥):
An Estimate

Contents of Aid

Period of Aid

LARA1 Aid

Foods, clothes, textile, medicine,
choes, soap, cotton and so on

1945 - 1956

$1.1 billion

(J¥40.0 billion)

$22 billion

UNICEF2 Aid

Skim milk, raw coton and so on

1949 - 1964

$18 million

(J¥6.5 billion)

$360 million (J¥130 billion)

CARE3 Aid

Foods, clothes, the necessaries of
life, medicine and so on

1948 - 1955

$50 million

(J¥18 billion)

$1.0 billion

GARIOA4

The necessaries of life such as
foods, fertilizer, medicine and so
on

1946 -1951

$1.6 billion (J¥567.9 billion)

$32 billion (J¥11.36 trillion)

EROA5

Industrial raw materials and
capital goods such as machines
and equipment

1946 -1951

$286 million (J¥102.8 billion)

$5.7 billion (J¥2.1 trillion)

World Bank

31 loan agreements for 34
infrastructural and industrial
projects

1953 - 1966

$862.9 million (J¥311 billion)

$17.3 billion (J¥6.2 trillion)

1

LARA stands for Licensed Agencies for Relief of Asia

2

UICEF stants for United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund

3

CARE stands for Cooperative for American Relief Everywhere

4

GARIOA stands for Government Aid and Relief in Occupied Areas

5

EROA stands for Economic Rehabilitation in Occupied Areas

Development Finance, MPP, VJU

(J¥800 billion)

(J¥360 billion)

11


II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic
Development
• 1957~69 Upswing Period in Growth Rates ~Accelerated Growth Period~
▻ Some 10% of annual growth rate throughout the period due to high investment
ratio of 30% with imported technologies and equipment.
▻ Industrial promotion policy, import liberalization policy and export promotion
policy resulted in export increase.
▻ Slow capital liberalization policy lasted from 1950 to 1964; concerns over
foreign capital invasion (FDI).
▻ JETRO was established in 1954 and exchange rate was kept at ¥360/$.
▻ Government administrative guidance on promotion of basic industries,
realignment of excessive competition among firms and so on.
▻ “Income Doubling Plan (1961-70)” was formulated in 1960.
▻ Acute labor shortage problem and inflationary trend sneaked in.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

12


II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic
Development
• 1970~75 Downswing Period in Growth Rates
▻ In 1970, US B/P situation was worsened and IMF system was collapsed.
“Fixed exchange regime” was replaced by “Floating exchange regime”.
▻ Japanese Yen was devalued from ¥360/$ to ¥308/$ in 1971.
▻ Japanese government employed the easy money policy to avoid recession.
▻ Japanese exports did not drop and excessive liquidity problem together
with strong inflationary pressure surged.
▻ The (first) oil crisis (1973) caused hyper-inflation in 1973-74. The tight
money policy was exercised and inflation ceased, yet the economic activities
slowed down, which in turn solved labor shortage problem.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

13


II. Long-term Historic View of Japan’s Economic
Development
• 1976~87 Upswing Period in Growth Rates ~Steady Growth Period~
▻ The tight money policy ended in 1975 and the expansionary fiscal policy
was introduced in 1977.
▻ Exports did not drop. The economy experienced steady growth rate of 3%
to 5% with stable prices and low unemployment rates.
▻ In 1976, the current account of B/P turned into surplus and since then the
surplus expanded. Foreign exchange reserves increased.
▻ The second Oil Crisis (1978/79) did not affect the above trend.
▻ In 1985, “The Plaza Accord” was reached, which resulted in ¥150/$.
▻ Government did not raise the Official Bank Rate at 2.5%, which lead to
the entrance of “Bubble Economy”.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

14


III. Post-war Economic Recovery (1945~56) and
Accelerated Growth (1957-69): A Closer Look at
Its Specific Causes
1. Specific Causes of Economic Recovery and Accelerated Growth
(1) Recovery Demand from War Damages
(2) Korean War Demand (1950 ~ 51)
(3) Post-war Democratization
(4) Expansionary Economic Policies
(5) Decrease in Defense Expenditure
(6) Imported New/Advanced Technologies and Equipment
(7) Full Employment Policy Pursued by Developed Countries
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

15


IV. Japan’s Economic Development and Contributive
Factors ~Implications for Developing Countries~
1.

Ad Hoc/Transient Factors

(1) Priority Production System, (2) Reconstruction Finance Bank, (3) Fiscal Retrenchment
Policy and Tight Money Policy, (4) Expansionary Economic Policies (after Dodge’s Line),
(5) Korean War’s Special Demand, (6) Foreign Assistance (from Emergency Assistance to
Reconstruction Assistance), (7) Establishment of Economic Planning Agency and Three
Development Plans, (8) Strategic Industries’ Promotion Policy, and Imports of Western
Technologies and Equipment, (9) Industrial Protection Policy, (10) Import Liberalization
Policy, (11) Foreign Capital Liberalization Policy, (12) Export Promotion Policy vis-à-vis
Full Employment Policy by the West, (13) Japanese Government Administrative Guidance
and (14) Democratization of Economic and Social Institutions.

Development Finance, MPP, VJU

16


IV. Japan’s Economic Development and Contributive
Factors ~Implications for Developing Countries~
2. Basic Factors ~ Factors of “Social Absorptive Capacity” ~
(1) Disciplined Political Leaders
(2) Efficient and Effective Government Administration
(3) Entrepreneurs’ Positive Attitude toward Technologies & Equipment
(4) Quality Engineers
(5) Hard-working Laborers
(6) Fairly-developed Social/Economic Infrastructure
(7) Fairly-developed Financial System
(8) Fairly-developed Distribution System
These factors had been consolidated over a long period of time since 1886.
Development Finance, MPP, VJU

17


Appendix: Japan’s Economic Development Plans after World War II
Plan and (Result)
Name of Plan

Planning Period (FY)

Objectives
Growth Rate in %
(annual average)

Unemployment Rate
External Balance (Current
in % (annual
Inflation Rate in % (annual average) Accounts) in the Final Year (US$
average)
100 million)

Five Year Plan for Economic
Self-Support

1956-60

Self-support of the economy and full employment

4.9 (8.8)

1.0 (1.5)

n.a (1.8)

0 (-0.1)

New Long-Range Economic
Plan

1958-62

Maximizationof growth, improvement of national living,
and full employment

6.5 (9.7)

n.a (1.3)

n.a (3.6)

1.5 (-0.1)

Doubling National Income
Plan

1961-70

Maximizationof growth, improvement of national living,
and full employment

7.8 (10.0)

n.a (1.2)

n.a. (5.8)

1.8 (23.5)

Medium-Term Economic Plan

1964-68

Rectifying imbalances

8.1 (10.1)

n.a. (1.1)

2.5 (5.0)

0 (14.7)

Economic and Social
Development Plan

1967-71

Balanced and steady economic development

8.2 (9.8)

n.a. (1.3)

3.0 (5.7)

14.5 (63.2)

New Economic and Social
Development Plan

1970-75

Construction of admirable society through balanced
economic growth

10.6 (5.1)

n.a. (1.9)

4.4 (10.9)

35 (1.3)

Basic Economic and Social
Plan

1973-77

Promotion of national welfare, and promotion of
international cooperation

9.4 (3.5)

n.a. (2.1)

4.0 (12.8)

59 (140.0)

Economic Plan for the Second
Half of the 1970s

1976-80

Realization of a richer national life and stable
development of Japan's economy

6.0 (4.5)

1.3 (2.1)

6.0 (6.4)

40 (-70.1)

Development Finance, MPP, VJU

18


New Economic and Social
Seven-Year Plan

1979-85

Shift to a satable growth path, enrichment of quality of
life, contribution to the development of the
international economic community

5.7 (3.9)

1.7 (2.6)

5.0 (3.6)

Roughly bsalanced basic accounts
(550)

Outlook and Guidelines of
Economy and Society in the
1980s

1983-90

Formation of peaceful and stable international
relations, forming an economy and society full of
vitality, ensuring a secure and affluent people's life

4.0 (4.5)

2.0 (2,1)

3.0 (1.6)

Internationally harmonious
balance (337)

Economic Management
within a Global Context

1988-92

Reducing the massive external imbalance and
contributing to a better world, creating diverse
lifestyles and better quality of life, promationg
balanced economic and social development nationwide

3.75 (4.0)

2.5 (2.2)

1.5 (2.2)

The ratio current account surplus
to GNP shall reach internationally
harmoneous levels by the end of
the plan period (1,259)

Five-Year Economic Plan Sharing a Better Quality of
Life around the Globe-

1992-96

Reforms towards a better quality of life, co-existing
with the global community, establishing the foundation
for development

3.5 (1.0)

2.25 (3.2)

2.0 (0.8)

Internationally harmonious
balance (1,250 in FY 1994)

1995-2000

Creation ofa a free and enegetic society and economy,
creation of a prosperous economy and society in which
people can feel secure and pursue fuller lives,
participation in the management of the global
community

3 (n.a.)

2.75 (n.a.)

0.75 (n.a.)

Sufficiently significant contraction
(n.a.)

Social and Economic Plan for
Structural Reforms -Towards
a Vital Economy and Secure
Life-

Source: (Former) Economic Planning Agency of Japanese Government

Development Finance, MPP, VJU



19



Tài liệu bạn tìm kiếm đã sẵn sàng tải về

Tải bản đầy đủ ngay

×