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HOÀN THIỆN HỆ THỐNG CẢNH BÁO SỚM VỀ CÁC VỤ KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG SẢN CỦA VIỆT NAM

TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN
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KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG
SẢN CỦA VIỆT NAM


!"#"$!%&'()
*!+!,-"#!!
./0122
2
MỤC LỤC
34
356789/:;:<=>;>:<;>;;?@4AB:CDEF
AG:;:3>H4I<J.:;:CJKL3AM:/AB:
G@MKNEO4AP7:8+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Q
<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=G5GR@N::S3L7M@ME4
=>=47+3T4@U4H4/E4=>KLVW:X4=47?
Y>VZ[VOV6V>J7Y@M:;:@FV=:<;>;;/:3B
:L>@N@=:X4AM:/Y:<=G:;:7YZCJ:OV7:KLVW

GMA:;34/<4C4/Z7\+IU672]]^4/:C:;:@FV=?G_2
@F/3O>8GMG:;:@FV=:<;>;;++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Q
`Y:Ea@b/3T4@U4H4.:X4=:J<;CM7@c:S
d:/:A4>;AB:=HJ3@=::X.>S3;:;:@F
V=:<;>;;+LGABZ:J<;:A4:4/E:A4:OCN>9
[:/;;Ve77M:fEUGg@=:b>Z/CG=Z+h@b/
3d3ATB>4:S3L<i.VJC@FV=/dG7J7=
HJ:X4:Z;::J<;CM7+jL>;UN:/dk'lmm
n!opq'$`rqsmn!pq*q!ql!
jtuv!ow(m(`xAB::yI:z++++++++++++++++++Q
4:O3Ld:Z3h:zd:b>GR@N:AGb@6
:Ce:X43APi{ph|67011}~@Mdk!J>;>6U4:;:@F
V=>;;KLVW=473dV=.b>VH:x/Gb
@6?A434:;:>9[:@d:;:@FV=<;>;;7=47?Y>>J/
9G7JC:;:@FV=IUOA434:;:J>;>6U4:;:@F
V=>;;KLVW7Y:Ea@bd:A4>9[:@43S:8:8
:O=:J<JCM7@d:;:@FV:<;>;;KLVW:X4=
47+ }
•@Mdk=7:<;>;;g7.CAM:3M@<y:
@M=47x|670121~:X4:Ce€i44@dk=7
>O@M:;:@FV=<;>;;3AP7H::X4:;:AM:4>;
3I@<y::=47x|67011•~:X4:Ce‚4S4/:J4;:J?
0
d:b>MV=7:X4:;:AM:3MI>O@M:;:@FV=:<;
>;/7Y:Ea@b:;:J>;>AB::;:AM:3M3IV4:A4N:CN>a
B>@M5Y:a=47@3Gb@6:ƒ:A4„:J>;>
:8K9EN7.=:J<JCM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;KLVW
:X4=47++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}
3VO/dkp;>;;@:<;>;;3AP7H:7.
C<y:V=73{34:=47x67011…:X4:Ce†;
d/;:J:ƒ7M:f>9[:5@Ld:G<;>;;/
:<;>;;/:;:z::;:H:43M;>EF<=>;>:<;
>;IUO;:J3{34V=7:=47+`Y:Ea@b3:;:<y:
V=7AB:34/;:J:ƒVZd:L>MCN:8:8>JK9EN
=:J<;CM7@3IV4K9EN=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=
:<;>;;KLVW:X4=47++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}
OIL3‡/L:J:;:d?U:zGH4GR@N::<;
>;;d:A4C9@:zCN:8>J:O=:;:<;CM7/
:ƒA==HJ.:X4=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=
:<;>;KLVWZCJ:X4=47+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++…
4~p.ZAP+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}0
<~p.4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}_
:~p.:•8A+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}^
E~p.:[++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}^
ˆ~;:p./HJG‰CJKL|p.ŠCJ/p.Z=>@*;3IZ
Z/p.Z=>\~+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}Q
‹~;:PH4V;:Ap.A>;>/9AM:++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}}
~;:i4>AP+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}…
~*SAP7@Z=>=47|~+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}…
DANH MỤC CÁC CHỮ VIẾT TẮT
Chữ viết tắt Tên đầy đủ tiếng Anh Tên đầy đủ tiếng Việt
_
ADB (C4%ˆ@ˆG>7ˆp4V 9>;3I9q
BCT p.ZAP
CBPG <;>;;
EU Œ3>ˆ4 79•
FTA Ž3ˆˆ34Eˆ(3ˆˆ7ˆ =>iAP7NE
GDP !3CC%7ˆC:*3E: •CJ>W7H:.
HS
437•ˆE77E
%ˆC:3>4EEˆCˆ7
=S4
VASEP
ˆˆ47(CC:4‹
ˆ4‹EŒK>3ˆ3C4E
*3E:ˆ3C
=>.<@jLVW
XCJ=47
VCA ˆ477>ˆ(3 F:‚JG‰:34
XNK jLb>VW
XK jLVW
WTO ‘3GE34Eˆ'34•4 •:z:AP7M
DANH MỤC CÁC BẢNG
DANH MỤC CÁC HÌNH
^
PHẦN MỞ ĐẦU
1. Tính tất yếu của đề tài
356789/:;:<=>;>:<;>;;?@4AB:CD
EFAG:;:3>H4I<J.:;:CJKL3AM:/
AB:G@MKNEO4AP7:8+
<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=G5GR@N::S3L7M@M
E4=>=47+3T4@U4H4/E4=>KLVW:X4=47
?Y>VZ[VOV6V>J7Y@M:;:@FV=:<;>;;/:3B
:L>@N@=:X4AM:/Y:<=G:;:7YZCJ:OV7:KLVW
GMA:;34/<4C4/Z7\+IU672]]^4/:C:;:@FV=?G_2
@F/3O>8GMG:;:@FV=:<;>;;+
•IJ7:;:=E:;:@FV=:<;>;;934@M:;:
;KLVW:X4=47€T{>:E4=>:O7T4
:W<i@:X.>S3;:;:@FV=:OIKJ34/7.35J
>;>GK9EN7.=:J<;CM7@M:;:@FV=:<;>;;
:X4AM:@M;KLVW:X4=47+=:J<;CM7
AB:Gb>IK;:i57ˆEy43@=:;>EF:;:<=>;>>S
@=AP7@MO4KLVW:X4=473AM:V@FV=:[
z:AB:+N::L/:Z;:EN<;@:Z;::W<i/z
>O3AM::;:@FV=AB:N:=hVJ6:OI3;V’:;:@FV=G
VZ’+P54/@FV=JC/@=::J<;CM7C“{>:;:E4
=>:OT4:W<i@:X.z>O/ˆ7G5VHJ[::N:
P@H4OAB:@i:34P3i3AT+
`Y:Ea@b/3T4@U4H4.:X4=:J<;CM7@c
Q
:Sd:/:A4>;AB:=HJ3@=::X.>S3;:;:@F
V=:<;>;;+LGABZ:J<;:A4:4/E:A4:OCN>9
[:/;;Ve77M:fEUGg@=:b>Z/CG=Z+h@b/3
d3ATB>4:S3L<i.VJC@FV=/dG7J7=HJ
:X4:Z;::J<;CM7+ jL>;UN:/d k'lmm
n!opq'$`rqsmn!pq*q!ql!
jtuv!ow(m(`x AB::yI:z.
2+Những công trình nghiên cứu liên quan đến đề tài
4:O3Ld:Z3h:zd:b>GR@N:AGb
@6:Ce:X43APi{ph|67011}~@Mdk!J>;>6U4:;:
@FV=>;;KLVW=473dV=.b>VH:x/Gb
@6?A434:;:>9[:@d:;:@FV=<;>;;7=47?Y>>J/
9G7JC:;:@FV=IUOA434:;:J>;>6U4:;:@FV=>;
;KLVW7Y:Ea@bd:A4>9[:@43S:8:8:O=
:J<JCM7@d:;:@FV:<;>;;KLVW:X4=47+
•@Mdk=7:<;>;;g7.CAM:3M@
<y:@M=47x|670121~:X4:Ce€i44@dk
=7>O@M:;:@FV=<;>;;3AP7H::X4:;:AM:4
>;3I@<y::=47x|67011•~:X4:Ce‚4S4/:J4;:
J?d:b>MV=7:X4:;:AM:3MI>O@M:;:@FV=
:<;>;/7Y:Ea@b:;:J>;>AB::;:AM:3M3IV4:A4
N:CN>aB>@M5Y:a=47@3Gb@6:ƒ:A4„:
J>;>:8K9EN7.=:J<JCM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;
KLVW:X4=47+
3VO/dkp;>;;@:<;>;;3AP7H:
7.C<y:V=73{34:=47x67011…:X4:Ce†;
d/;:J:ƒ7M:f>9[:5@Ld:G<;>;;/:
<;>;;/:;:z::;:H:43M;>EF<=>;>:<;>;IU
O;:J3{34V=7:=47+`Y:Ea@b3:;:<y:V=7
}
AB:34/;:J:ƒVZd:L>MCN:8:8>JK9EN=:J
<;CM7@3IV4K9EN=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;;
KLVW:X4=47+
OIL3‡/L:J:;:d?U:zGH4GR@N:
:<;>;;d:A4C9@:zCN:8>J:O=:;:<;
CM7/:ƒA==HJ.:X4=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=
:<;>;KLVWZCJ:X4=47+
3. Mục đích nghiên cứu
3:PCg•B>/>9[:.:X4=:J<;CM7=
4/;;5:Z@5::8V„:>F:/IUOdKL
:;:J>;>‡79:4=HJ.:X4=:J<;CM73
T4M+
4. Đối tượng và phạm vi nghiên cứu
4.1Đối tượng nghiên cứu của đề tài
=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;;KLVW
ZCJ:X4=47+
4.2 Phạm vi nghiên cứu
=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;;KLVW
ZCJ:X4=47EF:‚JG‰:34p.ZAP3IV4
K9ENU67011}:4@iAM:4U0122”012Q+
5. Phương pháp nghiên cứu
b@6CDEF>AP>;>•B>/>9[:/CC;3:PCgCG=
V:X4p.ZAP/•:F:JH4/•:F:V/•:z:
AP7M|‘'~/w<4AP74•|%'~/w<49
•|Œ~+
}+ Kết cấu của luận văn

Gb@6k==:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=:<;
>;;KLVWZCJ:X4=47x
>87g8@VGb/E47F:G=47VJ/@>FGF:d
<4€7_:AP
AP25@Ld:@d=:J<;CM7 @d:;:@FV=
:<;>;KLVWZCJ:X4=47+
AP0N:3=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;
KLVWZCJ:X4=47+
AP_•iAM@J>;>I==:J<;CM7U
4:67012Q+

CHƯƠNG 1: NHỮNG VẤN ĐỀ CHUNG VỀ HỆ THỐNG CẢNH BÁO SỚM
VỀ CÁC VỤ KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG
SẢN CỦA VIỆT NAM
1.1. Những vấn đề chung về hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
1.1.1. Khái niệm về hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
Hệ thống cảnh báo sớm các vụ kiện chống bán phá giá, chống trợ cấp và tự
vệ là một hệ thống thu thập và phân tích các thông tin, diễn biến liên quan đến các
vụ kiện áp dụng các biện pháp phòng vệ thương mại để đưa ra những cảnh báo sớm
về nguy cơ xảy ra các vụ kiện này đối với hàng xuất khẩu có kim ngạch lớn của Việt
Nam và khuyến nghị các giải pháp ứng phó.
1.1.2. Đối tượng của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
•AB:J<;:X4=:J<;CM7G:;:@FV=:<;>;
;/:3B:L>@N@=|:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7~
@MO4KLVW:X4=47+
1.1.3. Phạm vi của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
1.1.3.1. Phạm vi sản phẩm và nhóm sản phẩm của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
:[GN4:yCJ>W7–O7CJ>W7
|2~ATK<iV=:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=3
AP7H:3T4H4+
|0~7:@Š3yKLVW:4+
|_~:.63Ag:4/:O[GF:34_67+
|^~DEFdG4.+
p:5:[74[iGAB/KL>;U7.C
9:[G7JC@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7
3/=:J<;CM7:ƒ:8:9„:77.C:[i[
A
|Q~=47:O7.CGB:34Li|;9:Z3—/GN:
GNBG4.=/dV=N\~
]
|}~%†KJ34@4GbAP7/GW3;:<;>;;/
:3B:L>/<=>;>N@=+
|…~;:8AAM:ATb>3@8Ag=47Y:
E4=>=47G74:Z:>[4AM:+
|•~JKLG|74CC>3E:~/:O7GABV4y::ƒA
;3i463CJ>W7VZ:4+
*7@CJ>W7–O7CJ>W7
ˆCG=?g>8/[4|;21–0122~/=47?@
4>J7Y@M•:._]@FV=GH47.CCJ>W7A%4
|1•@F~/ŠCJ|10@F~/E=74|10@F~/@7.@FGH4:;:7Y
:PV[/:Z=>/+++p:OˆCG=:X4‘'/•AT
K<iV=:<;>;;3M|U2]]Q4~GO4:L4:;:
GH4˜7G@:;:CJ>W7UV7G˜`;7O:/<i:PV[/
<i=˜%=74@E4˜N4/:4C˜p.™/L˜ZCJ/N:>W7˜
•;/N4@:;:CJ>W7G7U;/N4+
d3C.:@d:;:CJKLPJ7:;:AM:4
>;3I:OGB@d:>[@N/;9:ZG4.3—/
VZ:83h.Veb/G4.:4/@[EFA:;:CJE=74/E4/
XCJ/<.L/;H‰/V[/7/V7G+
6:z@5:[;3@;;•H4@d:;:7Y
KLVW:XGN::X4=473T4H4/348K9
EN=/>7@7YC“AB:GN4:yIb>3ˆEš@:J<;
€71}7YKLVW:XGN::X4=47@:Od:P<iVgV=
€7 Thủy hải sản; Da giày, Dệt may, Đồ gỗ; Dây diện và cáp điện; Mặt hàng máy
móc, điện tử.
1.1.3.2. Phạm vi thị trường cảnh báo
:[K;:i>7@i3AT
%N431}:[:P<JC4
|2~;:9KLb>VW:X4=47@Mi3ATb>VW+
|0~7:KLVW:X4=47@i3AT|;3i–Š3y~+
|_~•CGAB:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP77
i3ATAM:b>VW?VgV=O:@;>EF@M
O4KLVW=47O33567H4+
|^~P:L7YKLVW:X4=47@i3ATb>VW+
21
|Q~:.63AgKLVW:X4=47@i3AT34
8L+
|}~[E=@dV@N:i4G‰+
N4:yi3AT:J<;
ˆCG=?g>8/z8E4C;::;:AM:Vg
V=Gt•.@MQ01:.:d34~/4•|^2^~@Œ|_•0~/>G:;:
AM:q:ˆ4/47*/›:+++
•@M:;:AM:?:;:@FV=@M=47/z8GŒ
|21@F~/>ˆG4•@t•.|:a:O1^@F~/>ˆG44E4/•R
•/(b>/(:ˆ4/+++
3C:;:@FV=?KLVW@M=47/:;:@FV=:O
GM:OJAg;VIM.CJKL/KLVW:X4=47|A@F
V=p*!:;34/:;<4C4/@FV=Z7/@FE4/+++~db>3g10i3AT
KLVWGML:X4=47Gi3AT4•@i3ATŒ+
3:PCgKˆ7Kœ/;;:;::[3/:ƒA€9GN:
@[:L7M:X4.E:Z@=:/348K9EN=/4C“
b>3ˆEš@:J<;@M10i3ATKLVW:[:X4=47G
4•@7:9•|Œ~+•9:ƒG10i3AT:[:O:;:@FVg
V=:<;>;;@MO4KLVW:X4=47+34
>ˆ/V=?@b7.:;:=HJ/=C“E87g3.
>7@:J<;347.Ci3ATV;:A›:/3‚:/t•./47*/
(:ˆ4\aˆ7z:.JAg+
*7@:X4=:J<;C“AB:d:fG@C“AB:7g
3.ˆ7z:.JAg@H7Z:;:@FV=I;>z:;::8N:
†+
1.1.4. Mục tiêu của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
=:J<;CM7AB:Gb>IK;:i57ˆEy43
@=:;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7@MO4KLVW:X4
=473AM:V@FV=:[z:AB:+N:?:L/:Z
;:EN<;@:Z;::W<i/z>O3AM::;:@FV=AB:N:=hVJ
6:OI3;V’:;:@FV=GVZ’+P54/@FV=JC/@=:
22
:J<;CM7C“{>:;:E4=>:OT4:W<i@:X.z>O/
ˆ7G5VHJ[::N:P@H4OAB:@i:34P3
i3AT+
%@b/1}7F::[:X4@=:K9EN@>;3I=:J<;
CM7AB:Y34/:FIG
|2~j9EN=:PCgE5G=/Z:J<;@M57Y@
i3ATKLVW3yI7/‡79:4[:X.@=HJ3
:Z;:d/K9EN:GAB:KLVW@EN<;+
|0~*;=/b<CM75:PG7JC:;:@F@=:;>EF:;:
<=>;>>S@=AP73AM:V@FV=AB::[z:|€CP
:8;>EF:;:<=>;>3AB:.>Y:3AM:V:PH4:OW7
Hd34Hid34~+
|_~i:;:E4=>3@=:d:f.KLVW@:O
5:W<iP33ATB>:;:.d34AB:+
|^~i:;:p.//:PH4:OGH43.d/
:i:GAB:CJKL/KLVW57Y/i3AT:J7+
|Q~9:4‰z:/[:X.>S3;:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>
>S@=AP7:X4:;:E4=>KLVW/=>.=
47+‚4O/9:4[:34/@i:34:X4:;:E4=>=
473i3ATH:+
|}~6:ATCNB>;:@I<Gc454[>X@:;:E4=>/
=>.3:Z;::X.>S/3;:;:@FV=AP7
AM:+
1.1.5. Vai trò của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm về các vụ kiện chống bán phá
giá hàng xuất khẩu nông sản của Việt Nam
3<:JCGAB:;:@FV=>S@=AP7@MO4
KLVW:X4=474:OKAM:6/:Z;::J<;CM7
:;:@FV=GCz:H43yI:X.>O@M:;:@FV=/<J@=GB[:
:X4:;:E4=>=47+‡7V„:>F:5::X4:Z;::J
20
<;3/H4O/9:4=HJ/:LGAB:X4:Z;::J<;CM7:ƒ
A>aB>@M€9GN::X4p.ZAP/@=:K9EN7.=
:J<;CM7:;:@FV=:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=:f::
:;:7YKLVW:OV7:GM:X4=47GCz::8+
%O/34@b<48/=:J<;CM7C“b>3
€GN:IˆEš@:J<;5i3ATKLVW3yI7/:OJ
Ag;VIM.KLVW:X4=47A4•/Œ@b>3
ˆEš57YKLVW:OV7:GM:X4=47A7YE=
74/E4/XCJ/€™/+++3:;:4@b>ˆ/=C“
d:f>7@i3AT@>7@CJ>W77.:;:[:B>@M7z:.
=HJ@5dV=/:J:FI+
•@M5i3ATKLVW:X4=47VZ.:>7@:X4
=:J<;ˆd;/:;:AP@F=47:;:i3ATOC“
@c>F:>B>@MF:‚JG‰:34@:;:P@i:OGH43I
V4N:=:Z;::J<;|267–0G8~ˆ8:X410:Z@6
3  |  C  ^1…•–p`‚    _–…–011}  @    C  2Q_1–p`‚
01–_–011…~+
1.2. Quy trình hoạt động của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
j;:i.EZ/E5V=8@
G=V|E5V=iGAB~
=47G=VKLVW7Y˜7?CJH4
|ZATG7?U}•C~˜CGAB–VGAB–;3i@;KLVW:X4
=47+%4C;::;:E4=>KLVW:X4=47|/i4:f/Z
GG:/7YKLVW/CGAB/;3i+++~+
i3ATAM:b>VW
G=Vb>VW7Y˜7?CJH4|7?U}•C~˜
CGAB–VGAB–;3i@•;3ib>VW/i>8b>VWU=
47/3‚:@i>8b>VW:X421AM:z8˜;b>VW
@–Y:P;<hH9|(@ˆ34ˆ4Gˆ(~:X4O4b>U=
47/3‚:@:X421AM::OV7:KLVW:4L@i3AT
AM:b>VW˜:.63Agb>VW+
2_
G=:X4i3AT.i4AM:b>VW;<;O4GH4
i3AT.i4:X4AM:b>VW/KAM4;:J˜i>8:X4:;:
CJKL.i4@KAM4•i>83VJT4_678
L+
Z/E†<|E5V=i[~
=47;:Z@dhh8A@V:/H:>;
3I/O77YCJKL:X4=47@M7YKLVW.:
>7@:J<;CM7+
i3ATAM:b>VW
;:E5V=/Z@d.;/>Jz:X4:;:CJKL.i4˜
.;:X4:PH4:OW7Hdd34@F@=:/>Jz:X4<;M+++
hhCJKL/VE4:X4CJKL.i4/@iAP
:X4:Z=>.i4i3ATAM:b>VW|@[EF87H43y
:X4O@MAM:b>VW3:;:7Y.V/d=>/
>;3I@a/h3J7C{.CJKL/O:D4@+@+++~
`z:.:34:X4CJ>W7GH4i3ATb>VW+
5Z/;;/bi@dKAME†34:;:@FV=;>
EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7EAM:b>VW+3O/
:8GA‰5AM::O@i3[i4G‰8@M=47/Y:<=G3‚:
E:;:@FV=AP7AT:O[>JzE9:d@8:;:@F
V=>S@=AP7@M=47d:OGH4M3‚:+h
@b/:8Y:<=ˆEš:;:CJ>W7<i;>:<;>;;/:3B:L>
@Mb>VWU3‚:3@S06789@KœKˆ7G=C
G=KLVWU=47:OXGMI:OI<id34:<;>;;3
:;::.:d34>ˆ4VZ+
54•@KAM>;3I3=Gb>;>/:;:H
iY:ZG=;>EF7JAg@F@=:;>EF:;:<=>;>>S
@=AP7AM:b>VW˜@
`.C.EV;:A@GW3;:<;>;;/J
–'/4:ZPJ@E†</KAM:X4@=::IEi:8AAM:
:X4:;:AM:3V@N:/Y:<=GU3‚:@M5CJ>W7
?@4GH4:;:@F@=:>S@=AP7+
2^
1.2.1. Xác định nguồn và phương thức thu thập
G=V|E5V=iGAB~
=47G=VKLVWU•:F:JH4@:;:=>
.|@[EF(Œ*/ŒŽ('/Ž'•Œ+++~˜
i3ATAM:b>VW
- G=Vb>VW
žU:PH4JH4/:PH4HJG‰/;7C;b>VW:X44•|
~@Œ|Œ3C4~Y:5:PH4:z:6V;:HJG‰CG=KLb>
VW+
ž5CG=V74[;3i46AB:•B>@>9
O7ˆ5Z@d;3i/CGAB/i>8/Š3y/;KLVW/K
AM@b.+++C“AB:74H4:;::Z:=>:::L>:;:
Ei:@F;3i463Y::;:@6>SA@LGb+
Z/E†<|E5V=i[~
=47Z@dhhCJKL/8A/G4./H7Z/6
3AgU•:F:V˜p;:;:X4:;:–=>.˜G=:z
.:Gb>:X4:;:•:z:>:[>X/EN;AM:+++
i3ATAM:b>VW
žU:;::PH4HJG‰/•:z:::OGH4+
žU:;:=>./E4=>CJKL/b>VWO4G
H4+++
ž:;:@6>SGb::L>Zˆhz:kŸ4:Ex
ž:;::Z:z/>9[:i3AT+
žU:;:>AP=<;:[/3dZ+
1.2.2. Phân tích đánh giá thông tin đầu vào
j;:ii>8b>VW
ˆ:;:Hi:X4‘'/ZAT/:;:@FV=>S@=AP7
C“VZAB:<„83UVŠ3b>VW:X4CJ>W7<iV=UAM:
<iV=C@M•Cb>VWCJ>W7<iV=@AM:EN[VgV=
2Q
>J@AB7.A I|_¡@–Y:…¡~+%O/7.:L>8H43y
:X47.=:J<;CM7=HJGVJ6>9[:•VGABb>
VW@CC;@M•GABCJKL:X4CJKL.i4:X4AM:b>
VW+3:PCgO/:OI[;@di>8/ŠG=4•@dVGAB/;@
:.63AgKLVW+
=:K;:ii>8b>VWO4AM:b>VW:O@AB
A I4VZI:OI3P@87„7:X4:;:@FV=G:[:P
<J8IK;:i5EL=<48@d:PO4KLVW:X4
=47>J7Y@M7.@FV=AP7+
•;;7z:.46@dCGABKLVW:X4=47
8:;:@FV=@d>S@=AP7<„€U7.4•@dC
GABb>VW7ˆCJKL<i;:.AM:b>VWhC
GABOG;VI+%O/7.:L>8ˆ::X47.=:J<;CM7
=HJG>J;7C;54•3CGABKLVW:X4=
47|ŠG=63Ag~:X4O7CJ>W7:J7+OI>;3I7.:AP
3h7;[Ib<5V@N:CJ>W74:OŠG=63AgC
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1.2.3. Tiêu chí và cấp độ cảnh báo
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C“GAB:X4:;:@FV=:<;>;;GV;3š3@KJ343
APG43L8|EAM};~/:FI€7:;::[C49
žO5€Z:[z:@3š3|@[EF?:OPVgV=
:X4CJKL/?:O5EL=@d@=:d34<48\~U:P
H4:z:6/U@6>SGbCA4U<;:[:O[\:L:OVJ6
KJ34@FV=@M7.7Y:FI+
žOi>8b>VW:4|I3_¡@.:1QAM::Oi>8
b>VW:4L~/64@dGAB/:O[GF:+
žŠG=J7;KLVW;VI|(~Y:;KLVW:X4=47
L>P7Y<‡;b>VW3<hAM:b>VW7.:;:;VI+
ž`Y4<i;>:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=AM:
b>VWY:7.–7.CAM:GH4V;:\
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L:OdVJ6C“3P@87„7:X4:;:@FV=|U};3gG~/:F
I€7:;::[C49
žO€Z<48:L7Y:OI<iVgV=3
APG4|@[EFAM:b>VW/CJKL.i44@b.:[>X
VgV=/d7;<i>;CJ/\~+
žOi>8b>VWAM:b>VW3_¡|@ABA I
I<iVgV=3U3ATB>;>EF>AP>;>:..>~+
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AM:b>VW3@SIU2673gG+
2•
žO:.J7;KLVW;VIY:;KLVWL>P7Y<‡
;b>VWU:;:AM:V;:@L>P7Y<‡;<;AM:b>VW+
L>.:J<;©@;>EF@M:;:O7O4:O5EL
=:OI<iV=A3APG4K4|3267~/J7?7.3:;:
:[C49
žOi>8b>VWAM:b>VW3_¡|@ABA I
I<iVgV=3U3ATB>;>EF>AP>;>:..>~+
žO:.63Ag@dCGAB–;3iKLVW;VI@GF:M
AM:b>VW3@SIU2673gG+
žO:.J7;KLVW;VIY:;KLVWL>P7Y<‡
;b>VWU:;:AM:V;:@L>P7Y<‡;<;AM:b>VW+
ž`Y4<i;>:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=AM:
b>VWY:7.–7.CAM:GH4V;:\
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1.2.4. Nội dung cảnh báo
A?AB:3h<>89G7JC:;:@FV=AP
7AM:/:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7AB:Vg
KAMd34@hd9+%@b/=:J<;CM7C“
VO:OI<:„::„3‡C“:O7.@FV=:<;>;;/:3B
:L>/N@=AB:VgKAM+Od@[EF:L5@FV=@cAB:
7Y:Ea:O3L[@y„V=@:O5@F@=:VZ<iVgKAM
d347Y:Ea3š3G;b>VW<i<;>;;@4934=+
[@h@b/7.<;:;:J<;CM7=HJ:ƒ:87ZJ:PVg
2]
KAM7.:.:d34;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7@M7.CJ
>W7:FI+
3:PCg>9G:;::L>.:J<;@M:;:7YˆUi
3AT/.E:J<;C“<4€75Z:[C4
|2~Z:J<;ˆ<4:L>.•©’/©E4:47/©@|:O~
|0~Z/E†<@d:;:@Fd34;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=
AP7:;:AM:b>VW@:;:@FV=4E†34‘'|:O~@d
7Y4AB::J<;+
|_~;:J>;>/Vi.:[>X:ƒA:;:=>
./E4=>KLVWIY:G3;7.:.:d34:
<;>;;Y:GJH7.@FV=?AB:A@d:GAB:KL
VW/:I•i3AT/:P:L7Y/:O5d:f@d:.KL
VWB>G‰/3C;G.CJKL/VE4/:W<i€9GN:\
;:ViC“EN43I<@di3AT/<4€7@i:X4:Z
=>.i4@:X4KLVW=47+.EJ>;>@Vi
:OAB:3:PCgL‰V/ZU:;:P@i:z:6GH4
@:;::z:6>9[::X4=:J<;CM7+
|^~!M=/AMEc::.€E4=>@d:;:Vz:/
Z>;>Gb7MGH4M:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7:X4AM:
b>VW@‘'|:O~+
1.2.5. Sản phẩm của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
=:J<;CM7C“N:=:;:<;:;:J<;74[iV•
H‰+=:<;:;iV•H‰:ƒC“>aB>@M.E:Z
@=:;;KAM4•:X4P;3<hKLVW|(C~
7F:+_+Q+34/=C“:O5:J<;74[VZiV•V:O
5@F@=::FIKJ34+
•AB:[:OIbZ:J<;
!€71^O7ABAgGB:X4=:J<;CM7/:FI
ž;::PH4:X4[>XU3APi4>AP
ž.€:;:E4=>=473O/AB:[G:;:
:ZKLb>VW@CJKL:;:7YGH4@FV=˜
ž;:./=>.:X4=47˜
žPH4/•:z::3G?•=47+
01
3:;:3ATB>:FI/ABb:J<;C“AB:K;:i7.
:;:[:B>+
hz:A434:J<;
aˆ7z:.@[:L:FI:X4U@F@=:/‡73;–:9
9345;:.:N:|AK;3..CJKL/VE4<h
AT:X4CJKL:ƒA:@=::;:<V;:GBEF:[5
Z:J<;:X44IG7VgKAM:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7
:G4~/aˆU@F@=::FI/3:PCg‰VJGb@L
:X4:;:P@i:OGH4/F:‚JG‰:34C“Hi@dAB@
hz:A434:J<;[:B>+
1.3. Kinh nghiệm quốc tế về xây dựng hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
1.3.1. Kinh nghiệm của Trung Quốc
=4/3M:f:O397A@L‘'|–‘'~”3N:
.:w<49E9>ABJ”3‚:?K9EN@3I
V4=+IU;Q–0112/=:J<;CM7:X43‚:<„
8AB:3IV4/397–‘'?7LVJ2•;I:z
:;:@Ld:P<J:X4=:J<;/C4O=<„8AB:@b+
T4<48/=:J<;:Xb>3@:J<;i3AT
4•+`Y8AB::J<;G7YE=74:X43‚:KLVW
@4•+4•67/=?GF:AB:8A/9:L>@:4
=:J<;?7g3.ˆEš@:J<;02:XGO4|]…
:AP/<4€78A<.:;:7Y/d~…•AM:–@aG?
•/APAP]Q¡•V7:KLb>VW:X4M+
=4/–‘':O7.<4:3;:ˆEš@:J<;CM7:;:
<=>;>>S@=AP7+•9G<.>b3N:>@b=ˆEš
@:J<;CM7|:O21@AT3N:<4€7:;::43:;:
GR@N:V/AP7H:/Gb/;y:@:Z=Z~+
34/397ATK@:.;:@M:;::4U:;:AM:3
H;3h.+
€V>[K9EN@3IV4=ˆEš@:J<;CM7:X4
–‘':XEPH4:[Hdi4>APGw<49E9*+
ABJ::L>+`.>8V>[U:PH43APEp.AP7
02
3‚:::L>+>[K9EN=:J<;AB::4G70>8
|2~>[K9EN<48€7:;::>[8A34<i03=%˜7;
7O:/>8:z/:>[74>87d7>9[:/KDG‰CG=/<;:;23=
%˜:>[74Z/E5G=03=%˜:>[GAP::4_
3=%@:;::>[V;:0/Q3=%+•:.V>[K9EN<48
G21/Q3=%˜|0~>[.67€7:;::>[74Z/
E5G=1/QQ3=%˜:>[E3h/9:L>=1/0Q3=%˜:>[
:zª>;3I|•ª%~1/0Q3=%˜:>[GAP1/Q3=%˜:
>[V;:1/0Q3=%+•:.V>[:.67G2/•3=
%
2
+
OIL3‚:?:{3y8A:@=:3IV4:Z;::J
<;CM7:J@dH7Z/V>[/.ƒ€9GN:/+++/[=HJ
:X4=:J<;:ƒ:A4b3š3/E:;:CJ>W7>9[:/:J
<;:X4397–‘':X‡7>F:@F::;::8:z/
HJG‰/:i:X4p.AP73‚:|F:AP7G7
j@F:•d34=~
0
3@=:KDG‰:;:@F@=:@dp*!/
:3B:L>@N@=+
`.35Y:[H43y:X4=:J<;CM7Gkh<;
i3ATx+:ƒ:[@h[:L/5Z:[z:@d@=::;:
AM:@‘':OK9EN=:J<;CM7:;:@FV=AP7
AM:4VZ@@=:K9EN/3IV4A3L[/:OIO8
AGVZ:O+p:O/@=:ˆEš/:J<;CM7:;:@FV=
AP7AM:ATAB:ˆ:P:x;::D4x|‘4:E~E
:;:GbCA:X4:;:@6>SA@LGbIˆEš/;7C;E†</
.;:X4i3AT.i4AM:b>VW@MO4KLVWAM:
+
ZH4@=:47VJV=7K9EN@@b=:J
<;CM7:X43‚:@5Z/E5G=74b>AB:/:OI:
2
€397–‘'*+ABJ”3‚:
0
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:3B:L>@N@=+
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L@=:K9EN@3IV4=:J<;CM7/7z:.@H7Z/.:Z
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:JN:†+%@b/:OIO@=:K9EN=:J<;CM73G
V;7M7—@M=47/S’:OCNI<V;:C9@dhhi
3AT/CJ>W7/E<VH:/Hi:X4>;>Gb@ZG=;>
EF:X4:;::PH4d34:OW7Hd˜V=7>9[:/;;/•
B>@F@=:˜@€V>[VZ’:K9EN:PCg8/
€9GN:/74Z/CG=+++p:O/5VHJ/=HJ:X4
=:J<;CM7ATVZbCN3š3=@VOiGABAB:+
[@h@b/=:J<;CM7C“AB:K9EN7.:;:>aB>@M
dV=N:†:X4=47@AB:3IV4N:=ˆG.3hB>G‰+
CHƯƠNG 2: THỰC TRẠNG HỆ THỐNG CẢNH BÁO SỚM VỀ CÁC VỤ
KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG SẢN CỦA VIỆT
NAM
2.1. Tổng quan về hoạt động xuất khẩu các mặt hàng nông sản của Việt nam
3567@U4H4/V7:KLVW:X4:{4GF:6H4
:;:67+P:L:;:7YKLVLGF::OCN4E@>;3I+3O
:;:7YZCJ:7@43S3LH43y3:M:L:;:7YKLVW
:XGN::X4=47+MGBG4>8GN:GABG4.GZE9@AT
G4./:a@ML477 /@i3[i4G‰bGB/=4745@i3[z
L@z433Ld7YZCJKLVW=4A//
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Bảng 2.1: Giá trị xuất khẩu các mặt hàng nông sản chính của Việt Nam
Đơn vị: 1000 USD
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Nguồn: Tổng cục Thống kê
h@<3/:OIL:;:7YZCJKLVW:XGN::X4
=47=4:X@cGXCJ/d/:>//:4C@™+
•9G:;:CJ>W7:{4:OdGB+F:H4d67/=47
GZGAM:z8@dKLVW/zz4@dKLVW@:
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Hình 2.1: Tổng giá trị xuất khẩu các mặt hàng nông sản chính của Việt
Nam giai đoạn 2006 – 2010
Đơn vị: triệu USD
Tên mặt hàng 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
XCJ
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Nguồn: Tổng cục Thống kê
A67011}/•;3iKLVL:;:7YZCJ:[:X4
=477M:fP]/2Š%+•670121/;3iKLVW?801
Š%/6L>P0G8C@M6767011}+5:C:Ld7
6KLVW:;:7YG3LGM/LG@M=47G7.LAM:
4>;3I/4>8E9CGZE9G4./:{4:OdGBP
:;:AM:V;:3@=:KLVW:;:7YZCJ3T4M+
Hình 2.2: Tỷ lệ đóng góp của xuất khẩu nông sản trong cơ cấu tổng giá trị xuất
khẩu của Việt Nam
0Q

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