Tải bản đầy đủ

Ecomomics evelopment 10th y p todaro and smith chapter 06

Chapter 6
Population Growth
and Economic
Development:
Causes,
Consequences,
and Controversies

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.


Estimated World Population Growth

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-2


World Population Growth, 1750-2050

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.


6-3


World Population Growth Rates
and Doubling Times

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-4


World Population Distribution by Region,
2003 and 2050

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-5


World Population Distribution

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-6


Fertility Rate for Selected Countries
1970 and 2006

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-7


Population Pyramids


LDCs population pyramid is truly pyramid-shaped with 40% younger than 19 years and less than 5% over 65.
Of the youth, 2 billion are 19 and younger and 400 million between 15-19




MDCs population structure is more like a cylinder with many middle-aged and elderly individuals

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-8


Population Pyramids:
Ethiopia vs. U.S., 2005

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-9


Hidden Momentum of Population Growth
• Family planning takes many years to achieve
two-child family and eventually replacement
fertility because today’s children are future
parents
• In Nigeria, If family planning began in 1990
• Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years)
• Replacement fertility would eventually reach in
2150 (115 years)
Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-10


Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-11


The Demographic Transition


Stage I: High birthrates and death rates



Stage II: Continued high birthrates; declining death rates because of improved medicine



Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing due to improved medicine and decline in the
fertility rate

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-12


Demographic Transition in
Western Europe

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-13


Demographic Transition in LDCs

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-14


The Malthusian Trap


Population grows at a geometric ratio

(e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.)



Food supply increases at an arithmetic ratio



Hence, hunger, starvation, and death shall follow



Remedy is to keep population growth in check

(e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.)

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-15


The Malthusian Trap
Income growth rate

Growth rate (%)

Growth

5
4

B

3

Population growth rate

C
Trap

Trap

2
1

A

Growth
0

Y0 Y1

Income per capita

Y2

-1 © 2009 Pearson AddisonCopyright
Wesley. All rights reserved.

Y3

Y4

6-16


Criticism of The Malthusian Trap


Rapid income growth due to technological advancement



Greater food production due to land-intensive technology and application of modern farm inputs



Economic growth faster than population growth, resulting in the rise of per capita income over time

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-17


Criticism of The Malthusian Trap
Growth rate (%)
5

Income growth rate

4
3

Population growth rate

2
1
0
-1
Copyright

© 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

Income per capita

6-18


Cross-National Evidence


Many LDCs have been able to lower population growth rate while increasing income per capita (e.g., China,
Sri Lanka, Chile, Singapore)



Still, there are countries with low or even negative rate of economic growth, but high rate of population
growth (e.g., Kenya. Congo, Philippines, Colombia, Venezuela)

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-19


Microeconomic Theory of Fertility
Demand for Children Equation

Cd = f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x = 1,..., n
Where
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the “net” price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the tastes for goods relative to children
Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-20


Microeconomic Theory of Fertility
Demand for Children Equation

Cd = f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x = 1,..., n
Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

∂Cd
>0
∂Y

∂Cd
>0
∂Px

∂Cd
<0
∂Pc

∂Cd
<0
∂tx

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-21


Microeconomic Theory of Fertility


In LDCs, the demand for children is high because the cost of raising children is low and they add to the
family’s workforce to generate income

– In LDCs, children are “investment goods”
– In MDCs, children are “consumer goods”

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-22


Policies of Fertility Reduction


Improve female education, and economic and social role and status



Provide of female non-agricultural wage employment



Rise in family income

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-23


Policies of Fertility Reduction


Reduction in infant mortality, hence demand for replacement children



Provide old-age income security



Expand schooling opportunities



Establish family planning programs

Copyright © 2009 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-24


Consequences of High Fertility
Population growth isn’t a real problem. The
problems are
• Poverty and lack of development
• World resource depletion and environmental
destruction
• Uneven distribution of population
•Copyright
Subordination
of women
© 2009 Pearson
AddisonWesley. All rights reserved.

6-25


x

Tài liệu bạn tìm kiếm đã sẵn sàng tải về

Tải bản đầy đủ ngay

×