Tải bản đầy đủ

Nghiên cứu sự biến đổi của nhu cầu tiêu và biện pháp tiêu nước cho hệ thống thủy nông Nam Thái Bình có xét đến ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu toàn cầu

MỞ ĐẦU
A. TÍNH CẤP THIẾT CỦA ĐỀ TÀI NGHIÊN CỨU
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')+'8T/YV3*_**BT3,M'r*R035
4**V3*4*'`*SN
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MVJK5BS*0')*'HII N)BC*8SYT/
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O*U.'3'A*5X,V,'..'
'(*'Agh]k3'*C')+gh]k'303,\
.,P*@,P*B=')').'N8*5/
BT3P3''B)BC*3'+,*5
V@j'*5,*l''53;'M8*M8
'BT*gh]k'303BC*'+,*5'*CN
ZCR*vF/^')@'3G“Nghiên cứu sự biến đổi của nhu cầu
tiêu và biện pháp tiêu nước cho hệ thống thủy nông Nam Thái Bình có xét đến ảnh
hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu toàn cầu”/BTU.'D*N
B. MỤC TIÊU NGHIÊN CỨU CỦA ĐỀ TÀI
I[BTJA80'BCJ'@'*BT*BC
'@'=*'"3U.'BT'BC,-''*'8_*
O,g+F5B^*'30N
6
C. ĐỐI TƯỢNG VÀ PHẠM VI NGHIÊN CỨU ỨNG DỤNG
;h'BT**'3380'3'BC
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5*'3Y'D*F\*d*l*X*gjg(3
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D. NỘI DUNG VÀ PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU
D1. Nội dung nghiên cứu
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D2. Phương pháp nghiên cứu
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1) Phương pháp kế thừa
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2) Phương pháp điều tra thu thập và đánh giá
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3) Phương pháp phân tích tổng hợp
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'@U/(NNN@Y'(*)(*)/(J*(*l*')[3)(*
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4) Phương pháp sử dụng mô hình toán thủy văn, thủy lực
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F\*,_+'JGc_+ZnpW!xpNO*8aOB]@,_+
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ZSP'()*'M,]P'A3_***T'C
xpNO*8a],h'(ZhVP;!@P,_+c ]o613
,_+c ]o11ZHAhcVzk "N)SJ^M'B@
BTD,3',V,_+'8A@D*58'3''
''BC')**/P,_+'H(*Ac ]o11JqF\*')*
''N
D3. Địa điểm nghiên cứu
h[D,*'33'*'8_*O,g+N
E. NHỮNG ĐÓNG GÓP MỚI CỦA LUẬN ÁN
;]D'L*38][5@BCDFM*Z'O,BT
Z'O,_*'*9•6229@M83_*')+P0'
*f,('d*\'DBC'N]'5*
/B)J[BT*\'D,*,(8
'38''84^l*X*gjg(Y*3'*'8_*
O,g+Y)*'Lq'HII835B^*JA
Y5v@3'_*')+'8TN
;h/M'3b)€8'S55B^*J'3
'D3,SJ^*U.'*5*5,•J'38
0'NhM83_*')+P0'*fJ'3SJ^
P*5TF\*54*')RBC3''BCl@
'*,BS*Db*5lJ''*'8T^BC
'Y*3)*'*'8_*O,g+N
;O*3[BT*BT,(J'@80'
BC3'BCk'*'8_*O,g+YUu'5
B^*'303BCDFM*'[5
/BTO3BCZ'O,_*N
>
;O*3U[BTV,@,(*\'F5B^*
,ABCDFM*'*'8_*O,g+'BS**C,
'=*[5/_*N
;hB)*5S5DV,(*\'3'*C
'30k'*'8_*O,g+''L**
V'L84,6122N
;IM8FA*'3_*BS**5B^*
CJ'380'BC,(''*'8T\'DN
7
Chương 1
TỔNG QUAN
1.1. TỔNG QUAN TÌNH HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU TRÊN THẾ GIỚI
_*')+*8,_'30'BT*
gh]k"/BT3P'*')'*C'3'L0'H92
'H')BCNk(*['F')''VnF‚)4,
1996/'_*k[*3BS*')+3(*'X,
/'+')V*ƒU.„Y*08D').'NLY
 !"/BT'3@'e'
JA',*3**33P'NVk(*[]8'4,199%@
O*[['B]8'/BT'_*30'*6•6227/BT*8'
1?7*')*YYZ'O,tNO*[['B38j'0YA
'L12•6•6227N
'5*,C.' !')+k(l*5
T@*8M'BT*gh]kF*B=*M8),92…@F
'A*M8),12…Nm*' !#$%&@')*Q*:74,
'L19626227"'(')*+'),-'').'/.,*01
2
3'4*
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1.2. TÌNH HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU Ở TRONG NƯỚC
1.2.1. Khái quát chung
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1.2.2. Một số công trình khoa học đã nghiên cứu có liên quan đến tiêu nước và
biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam
1) Nghiên cứu Biến đổi khí hậu Châu Á: Báo cáo của Việt Nam (ADB, 1994)
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2) Thông báo đầu tiên của Việt Nam cho công ước chung của Liên hợp quốc về
biến đổi khí hậu g(3*83c_')B=*@622$" #$1&/D,''5
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3) Báo cáo sơ bộ đánh giá tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến vùng hạ du và ven
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lợi áp dụng cho vùng Đồng bằng sông Hồng thuộc dự án Thủy lợi sông Hồng
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,@k(8T')+YJA',*8*)B=*hV
P8T@Z]P8TZ'O,@Z‰8V8T3k(
BC'Z'O,N]'AFWzg3k3'3')TN=
*'A3'3')*4,6229Nc\''33G
1"h*V'(*33_*')+'8T')BAJ_*
kl*FBC'(*M'G"JA'')D';U/('(*
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("<"JA'8'30<
6"hU.'bJq3JV't''_*')+'8T'
')*3b'.BC3'BC"'VBAJ_*kl*\\FA
0'BUM8FA*_*')+'8TX**lWzgN
14) Bộ Nông nghiệp và PTNT CJAE')TST/UM8
FA*,('BS*')+YC'+')V*m@*\'^hgp*l,
50'BDUM8'*''BC@'*@,BS*U**
FMBd*C\l)L**,-DC'*
5*1@?'b•pz*V622?;621235*1@$'b•pz*V
6212;6262N
1.2.3. Nhận xét và đánh giá chung về các công trình khoa học đã công bố có
liên quan đến biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam
BS*'AC'++*'*C@0'_*')+P/
_*)(*)/^Z'O,,Cb'')*3FA[5gh]k'3
03BCDFM*Nk0'_*')+JqF\*FA !@•Oz!@
|gYd*O,‘@h_*O,‘3Z'O,B*^,(JS(
')V,)(*N]'_*')+P_***5
62
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*58'G
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kl*›J_*g+<
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;BY*@'''''8('8(*AFQ*
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1.3. KẾT LUẬN CHƯƠNG 1
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')*R*4,,Cb'')*UM8FA*[5@'+,
,*5V'+')V*U.'30m*B*5
X,'*CNY).'''*53_*')+P/
_*'5*5B^*'L*ŒA\
'DNZŒA‰8V35v'3*8BC@8rB'
'.8_*')+P3^')*BC3'*C/_*
.J'380'BC'*'8TF5
B^*3BCDFM*NhM83SJ^')P*D+
'3'3“Nghiên cứu sự biến đổi của nhu cầu tiêu và biện pháp tiêu nước
cho hệ thống thủy nông Nam Thái Bình có xét đến ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu
toàn cầu”N
61
Chương 2
BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG BẮC BỘ VÀ TÁC ĐỘNG
CỦA CHÚNG ĐẾN TIÊU THOÁT NƯỚC
2.1. KHÁI QUÁT CHUNG
Zd*l*X*gjg(Q*P3d*l*X*J_*kl*"+'*
'DYFV*',*Cb3'3Z')+'b!ePQ83B=*
=DuF3'L'3kV*'b‰5*OA,8],pS
66
'bOg+NO4,19:2Z\O_*M,'(œ8]VO3BC83
g(]V3h0'B"/5BC'3%d*_**')*YY,('
d*,*'l*X*gjg(C[*C3*l,12'b3'3
3k3O(@k5!Q*@ZŒ!e@gjO@k5zBS*@kB*w@k3O,@
g+@O,h[@Og+NMd*38'+,('0F'le
k3O(@k5!Q*@ZŒ!e@gjO@Og+@k5zBS*3k3O,
rBTU3d*l*X*J_*kl*')*0,'b
‰5*O3,('(d*hgpkV_*BTB3N4,
622:d*hgggY'*F''A1N>:?N672')*Y5*')
%?2N2223.'_**@FMJ')1:@?')*B=N
hl*X*gjg(BT'V'3F')+l'\dJ'*
J_*kl*3J_*g+@(*RA_*N
!0Cd*l*X*Y('L2@>,16@2,')*YFBC>@2,,
'C77@:…5*6N1"NA')m*'.,'HC'B=*'')*
J_*JSY('A'.S,ABCJ_*')*,d,Bm
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Bảng 2.1: Phân bố diện tích vùng đồng bằng Bắc Bộ theo cao độ
Cao độ (m) Diện tích (ha) Tỷ lệ % Cao độ (m) Diện tích (ha) Tỷ lệ %
•1@2 $22N$>$ 62@61 7@2›?@2 19N?:2 1@$6
1@2›6@2 6%9N$22 1:@%9 ?@2›%@2 >1N1?2 6@%%
6@2›$@2 1$>N6?2 9@2$ %@2›:@2 1>N%22 2@99
$@2›>@2 117N>62 %@%% :@2›9@2 17N?:2 1@2?
>@2›7@2 >1N$22 6@%: ž9@2 76>N>2% $7@6:
zY[+X*`*3')m*'..''BC^hggg
8FA3_*')+'TN)*,d,B'3(d*M'
'B=*U8[FV^m\'3/,V@3*8SFV,_')B=*
8'LUB'C8Nc-'@F(*(,-'.'Y*3,-')(*Y
)*^d*l*X*'8sB*VY5B^*).'C('
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'C')1224,/[U*.).'*,')P*Nc-'_*')+38
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2.2. BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG BẮC BỘ
2.2.1. Mạng lưới trạm quan trắc khí tượng
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2.2.2. Biến đổi về nhiệt độ
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')*+,E4,Y69T'_*V')*'19%1;1992
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Bảng 2.2: Nhiệt độ trung bình năm của một số trạm khí tượng
TT Trạm đo
Nhiệt độ trung bình năm theo thời kỳ (
o
C)
1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008
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6 O,h[ 6$@> 6$@> 6$@> 6>@2 6>@2
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Hình 2.1: Xu thế biến đổi nhiệt độ trung bình năm tại trạm Láng
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