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Luận văn Thạc sỹ - Group 10 impacts of climate change to the economic development of vietnam

Foreign Trade University
Faculty of Economics and International Bussiness
Development Economics
Group assignment
Instructor: MA. Nguyen Thi Hai Yen
Group 10
Nguyen Thanh Nam Vu Khanh An
Nguyen Quang Huy Le Huu Trung
Le Hai Hung Nguyen Ngoc Dung
Foreign Trade University
Development Economics
Group 10
Le Thi Dieu Linh Nguyen Thanh Tung
Ha Noi, May 2014
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Development Economics
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Literature Review
There are many studies that have examined the effects of climate change on
Vietnam’s economy. The majority of findings stated that climate change have negative
impacts on Vietnam’s economy and suggest possible adaptation or mitigation measures
to lessen the adverse impacts. The economies of some countries are more vulnerable to
change than the global average, according to a report by World Bank (2009),
Vietnam is one of the five countries predicted to be among the most affected by climate
change due to its long coastlines. According to Tran Duc Vien in Climate change and its
impact on agriculture in Vietnam, it is believed that climate change is going to have huge
impact on people’s health since the rising of temperatures is a good conditions for
diseases such as malaria to develop. Claudia Ringler (climate change impacts in
Vietnam: potential for agricultural mitigation) stated that adverse impacts of climate
change can affect economic growth, poverty and malnutrition. The third world is more
likely to have a larger scale of their economies in agriculture and forestry. Climate
change surely decrease the productivity of the agriculture due to its increasing heat of
global warming
Low-latitude countries suffer up to four-fifth of the negative impacts of climate
(Mendelsohn et al. 2006), While the negative impacts of climate change is clear,
some still is optimistic about the outlook of the future world’s economy,
Robert Mendelsohn (climate change and economic growth) argues that the impacts
from climate change are not likely to affect the growth of global economy for the next
four decades. These impacts are simply not large enough to affect economic growth this
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However some also said that although it’s a challenge, climate change also has some
forgotten benefits. Matt Ridley (Why Climate Change Is Good for the World) has said:
“Climate change has done more good than harm so far and is likely to continue doing so
for most of this century. This is not some barmy, right-wing fantasy; it is the consensus
of expert opinion. Yet almost nobody seems to know this.” According to what he stated
in his research, climate change had bring many benefits to human, such as improvement
in global economic, fewer winter death, lower energy cost, better agricultural yields and
many others advantages.
The adaptation and mitigation measures are also mentioned in many studies. For
example, in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, the researchers

had stated how human can adapt to the change of climate in the future years, and also the
way we could mitigate the emissions of GHG and climate change. In this studies, the
author have stated that it is a need for every country in this world to unite to face the
climate change. While agriculture has traditionally been the focus of attention on climate
change impact, nearly every sector is sensitive to climate change and will need to adapt
to future conditions(Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in
As observed, we relized that previous researches provided knowledge with features
of content:
Impact of climate change on specific economic sector of Vietnam, but not a whole
picture of Vietnam’s economy
Impact of climate change on Vietnam’s economy, but not giving absolute solutions to
mitigate and prevent these effects
In this research, we concentrate on the impacts of climate change on economic
sectors of Vietnam, as well as the whole economy. This research also provides
opportunities and threats of climate change, and base on that to give the absolute and
effective solutions.
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I. General
1. Geographical location & Vietnam’s climate
a. Geographical location
Vietnam is a nation which is located in Western South of Dong Duong peninsula.
Vietnam’s area spreads from longitude 102 ° 8 'E to 109 ° 27' East ; latitude from 8 ° 27
'North and 23 ° 23' North.
- Vietnam’s area: 331.698 km
, including 324.480 km
of mainland and 4.200 km

of internal water. Length of coast: 3.260 km
(not including islands)
- Terrain’s characteristics:
 Many lowland hills.
 Many plateau with thick forests.
 Land for agricultural usage: approximately 20%.
 The country was divided into mountains, the Red River delta in the north;
and the Annamite Mountains, Highlands, Central coastal plain, and the
Mekong Delta in the South.
b. Climate
- Vietnam’s long area makes the climate divided into 3 regions:
 North area: humid subtropical climate.
 Central: tropical monsoon climate.
 South: Located in tropical savanna.
- Humidity: quite high, average 84 – 100%.
- There’re differences in latitude, therefore, Vietnam’s climate has featured
 Dry season (winter): from November – April of next year.
 Rainy season (summer): from May – October. Moist air is mainly come from
sea => rainfall.
- Average of rainfall: 120 – 300 cm.
 Approximately 90% rainfall was dumped in the summer.
 Rainfall trends to increase throughout many years, and centralizes in some rainy
months => the go-up of flood frequency.
Table 1: The prediction of annual rainfall’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999 period
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Climate area 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
North West 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4
North East 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.1 7.3
North Delta 1.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 7.9
North of
1.5 3.1 4.9 6.4 7.7
South of
0.7 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.2
Tay Nguyen 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4
- Average of annual temperature:
In general, the temperature tends to be higher than mountains and plateaus region.
Temperature of North Vietnam seems to augument much more than South of
Vietnam. Comparing to the 1980 – 1999 period, average temperature in the North
will increase by 2.4 – 6.8°C, and 1.6 – 2.0°C in the South in 2100.
Table 2: The prediction of annual temperature’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999
period (
Climate area 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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North West 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6
North East 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5
North Delta 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.4
North of
0.5 1.1 1.8 2.4 2.8
South of
0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.9
Tay Nguyen 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6
South 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.0
- Sea level:
Current sea level: increases about 9cm comparing to 40 years ago.
Trend: growing fast. Due to Monre date, the speed of sea level rise is expected to
grow fast in the period of 2020 – 2100, go up at least 30 cm in 2050 and up to 75 cm
in 2100.
The prediction of sea level’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999 period (cm)
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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Low script 11 23 35 50 65
12 23 37 54 75
High script 12 24 44 71 100
South 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5
2. Effects of geographical & climate on Vietnam’s economy:
a. Effects of geographical location to Vietnam’s economy:
 Advantages:
- Vietnam is located on an international crossroads of maritime& aviation, which create
favorable conditions for our country to exchange with countries in the region and
around the world.
- Vietnam is also a convenient gate-way entrance to sea for Laos, Northeast Thailand,
Cambodia and China's Southwestern region.
- The area of sea is much more extensive than landside, which facilitates some marine
 Favorable location is important to develop economic sectors, regions, which
creates conditions to open policies, integration with the countries in the world,
attracting foreign investment.
 Disadvantages:
- The extension from North to South leads to the increase of the transportation’s cost,
and difficulties in operating society & economy.
Vietnam is also located in disaster-prone areas like storms, floods, droughts which
occur every year.
b. Effects of climate to Vietnam’s economy:
- Rainfall: the go-up of annual rainfall causes the deterioration of transportation
system’s infrastructure, increases the maintaining costs.
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- Temperature:
 The increase in temperature will make paved road (which is designed to
withstand the low temperature) bearing more damage. This also leads to
the reduction of new roads investment.
 The increase of temperature also has a considerable effect on natural
ecosystem, for example, shifting the temperature boundaries of
continental ecosystems and freshwater ecosystems, altering the structure
of plants and animals in some areas. Some species of temperate and
subtropical can lead to loss of diversity.
- Sea level:
 The mangrove areas are shrunk.
 Biodiversity creams reduced by drought, flooding leads to the extinction
in weak species. Besides it, species which has strong resistance to
drought and floods will grow.
II. Definition, causes and actual situation of Viet Nam under climate change
For several decades up to now, the activities of human being have increased the factor
leading to the warming of the earth such as the exhaust from motorbikes and cars, the
increase in population…. These factors had caused so many harmful changes to the
natural environment. If there’s no action to deal with these problems, the result will be
According to the forecast of the International P Climate Change, in 2100, the global
temperature will increase from 1,4 to 5,8 degree C. And the warming of the earth
surfaces will melt the ice of the 2 poles and the high areas, this will lead to the increase
of sea level by 90 cm, plunge some islands into water. It is also estimated that to cope
with the warming of the earth, each country has to spend the money equivalent to5% to
20% of its GDP each year, in which the effect to the developing countries are much
greater than developed countries because of the technological level and so on.
Vietnam is the country under the great affection by the climate changes.
1. Definition of climate change
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The earth climatic system consists of the air, the continents and the oceans . The
process of the climate take place continuously between these factors. According to
Framework Convetion of the United Nations, we have these definitions:
_ "Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment
or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects
on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed
ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health
and welfare.” UNFCCC
_ "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods.
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to
persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
2. Causes of climate change:
The causes of climate change can be divided into two categories : natural causes and
those that are created by man.
a. Natural causes
There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change. Some of the more
prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and
comets and meteorites.
In our assignment, we pay more attention to the causes that are made by human being
rather than the natural ones.
b. Human causes
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The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large-scale use of fossil fuels for
industrial activities. These industries created jobs and over the years, people moved
from rural areas to the cities. This trend is continuing even today. More and more land
that was covered with vegetation has been cleared to make way for houses. Natural
resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and
All this has contributed to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels
such as oil, coal and natural gas supply most of the energy needed to run vehicles,
generate electricity for industries, households, etc. The energy sector is responsible for
about ¾ of the carbon dioxide emissions, 1/5 of the methane emissions and a large
quantity of nitrous oxide. It also produces nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide
(CO) which are not greenhouse gases but do have an influence on the chemical cycles
in the atmosphere that produce or destroy greenhouse gases.
c. Greenhouse gases and their sources
_ Carbon dioxide
There’s no doubt that Carbon dioxide and Methane are the 2 factors contributing the
most to the climate change.
Carbon dioxide is undoubtedly, the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
Changes in land use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, and other
activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon dioxide.
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Carbon dioxide concentration has risen from pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per
million by volume (ppmv) to about 390 ppmv in 2010. Since 1958 alone (shown here),
concentrations have risen by 75 ppmv. Source: NOAA
_ Methane
Methane is another important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. About ¼ of all
methane emissions are said to come from domesticated animals such as dairy cows,
goats, pigs, buffaloes, camels, horses, and sheep. These animals produce methane
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during the cud-chewing process. Methane is also released from rice or paddy fields that
are flooded during the sowing and maturing periods. When soil is covered with water it
becomes anaerobic or lacking in oxygen. Under such conditions, methane-producing
bacteria and other organisms decompose organic matter in the soil to form methane.
Nearly 90% of the paddy-growing area in the world is found in Asia, as rice is the
staple food there. China and India, between them, have 80-90% of the world's rice-
growing areas.
Methane is also emitted from landfills and other waste dumps. If the waste is put into
an incinerator or burnt in the open, carbon dioxide is emitted. Methane is also emitted
during the process of oil drilling, coal mining and also from leaking gas pipelines (due
to accidents and poor maintenance of sites).

This graph shows the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the
atmosphere over the last 2,000 years. Increases in concentrations of these gases since
1750 are due to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per
million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the
greenhouse gas per million or billion molecules of air.
Source: USGCRP (2009)
A large amount of nitrous oxide emission has been attributed to fertilizer application.
This in turn depends on the type of fertilizer that is used, how and when it is used and
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the methods of tilling that are followed. Contributions are also made by leguminous
plants, such as beans and pulses that add nitrogen to the soil.
d. Human activities:
_ All of us in our daily lives contribute our bit to this change in the climate. Give
these points a good, serious thought:
_ Electricity is the main source of power in urban areas. All our gadgets run on
electricity generated mainly from thermal power plants. These thermal power
plants are run on fossil fuels (mostly coal) and are responsible for the emission
of huge amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.
_ Cars, buses, and trucks are the principal ways by which goods and people are
transported in most of our cities. These are run mainly on petrol or diesel, both
fossil fuels.
_ We generate large quantities of waste in the form of plastics that remain in the
environment for many years and cause damage.
_ We use a huge quantity of paper in our work at schools and in offices.
_ Timber is used in large quantities for construction of houses, which means that
large areas of forest have to be cut down.
_ A growing population has meant more and more mouths to feed. Because the
land area available for agriculture is limited (and in fact, is actually shrinking as
a result of ecological degradation!), high-yielding varieties of crop are being
grown to increase the agricultural output from a given area of land. However,
such high-yielding varieties of crops require large quantities of fertilizers; and
more fertilizer means more emissions of nitrous oxide, both from the field into
which it is put and the fertilizer industry that makes it. Pollution also results
from the run-off of fertilizer into water bodies.
3. Actual situation in Vietnam:
In the conference about climate change in 2008, some forecasts about climate
change by Mr. Hoang Khac Hieu could be summarized in these tables:
Tables 1: National announcement about climate change in Viet Nam( in
comparison with 1990)
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Year Increase in
temperature( oC)
Increase in sea level
2010 0.3 -0.5 9
2050 1.1 – 1.8 33
2100 1.5 – 2.5 45
Source: Mr Nguyen Khac Hieu, 2008
Table 2: Forecast about climate change in regions of Viet Nam( increase in
temperature in comparison with 1990)( unit 0C
Year North
2050 1.41 1.66 1.44 1.68 `1.13 1.01 1.21
2100 3.49 4.38 3.71 3.88 2.77 2.39 2.8
Source: Mr Nguyen Khac Hieu, 2008
The tendency about climate change in Viet Nam:
_ The temperature in the North area of Viet Nam increase faster than the South
area, the temperature of the coastal areas increase slower than the inner area.
From now to the end of 21
century the highest temperature can increase from 4
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to 4.5 degree Celcius and the lowest can be 2 to 2.2 0C according to the
_ In 10 years up to now, the “El Nino phenomenon” had decreased 20 to 25
percent of rain fall in the Middle and the central highland of Viet Nam, which
cause massive and long-lasting drought in the period of El Nino. This impact in
South of the Middle is greater than North the Middle, North and South central
Highland. The El Nino phenomenon also cause enormous change in climate,
which appear uncommon monsoon, storm tent to be unpredictable about their
strength and direction. The temperature in winter and summer, in general, are
increasing. There are more and more unexpected floods and droughts.
_ The increase in the sea level also cause flood in the south of Viet Nam. Do
damage to the infrastructure such as roads, houses, castles even disease to
_ The landslide in mountainous areas because of flood had caused a lot of
damages to the living of people in Viet Nam in recent years. The landslide of
coastal area, which last for hundreds of kilometers, result from the increase in
the number of storms and the activities of the tide.
III. Impact of Climate change on Viet Nam economy
1. Impact of Climate change on economy in general:
As growth is a cumulative process, the reductions in GDP levels as a result of climate
change translate into small reductions in average annual GDP growth rates over the
simulation period. When including all the studied effects of climate change, the
average annual GDP growth rate is reduced by between 0.02 and 0.10 percentage
points. In other words, if the expected average baseline growth rate without climate
change is 5.4 per cent per annum, then the growth rate would be expected to be
between 5.30 and 5.38 percentage points.
All else being equal Vietnam’s GDP is expected to exceed US$500 billion by 2050,
which means that the losses caused by climate change are large in absolute terms. GDP
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losses are grouped within the range of US$6–15 billion in present value terms. These
losses provide clear incentives for adaptation policies designed to reduce climate
change damages. Moreover, the findings suggest that there is a window of opportunity
for Vietnam to benefit from pre-emptive action.
2. Climate change directly affects every economic sector
a. Impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries
 Agriculture
Tracking in recent years shows that there are many expression of extreme weather and
not normally follow the general conditions as it should be.
_ Firstly drought situation becomes more serious and frequent. For example, in 2010
a severe drought in the northern mountainous province and north-central provinces.
Then Son La has the largest area of corn yield decreased up to 40%; That year also
summer-autumn crop in the north-central province should have been implanted in
June but July still not all transplants because the drought, even in the reservoir has
no water. In the year of 2013, drought occurs very serious in South Central Coast
and Central Highlands. Perhaps the 16 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice
should be implanted, but because the reality of not enough water farmers was
advised to not producing. Last droughts make thousands of hectares of coffee in the
Central Highlands died.
_ Secondly extreme cold and damaging cold weather also caused many abnormal and
erratic manifestations. The most obvious is the longer cold, and the number of
extreme cold and damaging cold days is larger than normal. Cold penetrate deeper
into the provinces of North and South Central. Previously the cold affects only the
Red River Delta provinces and the northern mountainous provinces alone; but
recently the level of cold becomes more serious , and even spread into the south.
For example, in 2008, 2010 the cold period makes thousands of hectares of rice in
Binh Dinh, Phu Yen badly affected because of the low temperature conditions. In
the northern provinces, the number of extreme cold and damaging cold days
consecutively increased from 38 to 40 , then the extreme and damaging cold days
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damage continuously increased. This situation makes it difficult for crop production
in the northern provinces, then crop in the central provinces and even influence the
Climate change - one of the factors causing drought in agriculture
_ Thirdly is the happenings of unseasonal rain, hail, unusual tornadoes. The
situation of unseasonal rain greatly influenced to the cashew in the southeastern
provinces. Unseasonal rain at flowering greatly affect cashew output. In 2013
unusual hail, tornado at the end of dry season and the beggining of rainy season
with high frequency has made many great influences.
_ The fourth is storms are also abnormal; for example for the last two years,
storms and tropical depression in the beggining of the year suddenly appear in
the south sea and affect the South Central Coast first. This is unusual because as
normal rules, storms will form up and travel from China to Vietnam, with the
first target is the North then slowly approach the south central coast. …
The initial assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural sector of
Vietnam shows that total crop production can be reduced from 1-5%, productivity of
major crops may be reduced to 10 %, especially for rice production.
The forecasts show that by 2100, the granary of Mekong delta are at risk of losing 7.6
million tons / year, equivalent to 40.52% of the total rice production in the region.
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 Impact on forestry
_ Climate change makes decrease in forest land fund and forest area
The rising of sea level make considerable impact on mangroves.
The Mountains and Midlands of the North: The average coverage of forest of this
region was about 42.2% in 2013. However, the coverage of forest is unequal between
area, for instance the figure is 7.4% in Ha Tay, whereas 61.8% in Tuyen Quang.
Although there have been many water storage project is done, but because of the steep
slopes and heavily dissected terrain, most reservoirs are small. In addition, due to the
forest coverage is unequal and the quality of forest is not good, in the years that are
lack of rain, drought prevention had inconsiderable effect.
The Coastal of the Central: The average coverage of forest of this region was about
44.4% in 2013. Due to the complex topography with high mountain ranges run close to
the sea, interspersed with small deltas, influenced by the monsoon hot and dry, low
rainfall conditions, this is the harshest region throughout Vietnam
Because of climate change, the number and danger level of hurricanes increase by year.
These hurricanes are more unpredictable and powerful as time go by. This has made
lots of damage to the forest. In 2013, Vietnam has the number of hurricanes as the
highest in 49 years.
Highlands: The average coverage of forest of this region was about 54.5% in 2013.
Groundwater resource is abundant here. However, unusual weather over years and
excessively water resource mining for industrial plant have made serious imbalance
between surface and underground water. Moreover, dry and hot weather makes high
risk of forest fires.
Mekong Delta: The average coverage of forest of this region was about 12.1% in
2013. Many parts of the Mekong Delta have high proportion of alkaline due to
seriously undermining land for agricultural production.
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_ Climate change makes change to forest structure
Raising temperatures, precipitation, evaporation, increased storms, temperature
extremes, rain intensity and attenuation index wet. . . make boundary between tropical
and tropical border with subtropical temperatures, temperate are moving higher,
towards the top of the mountain.
_ Climate change affect forest quality
Significantly development of new hazardous pests, as well as exotic pests
The process of desertification severely degrade soil quality, moisture index decline
caused reduced biomass on most types of forests, especially production forest. The
population of the forest animals and rare plants reduced massively. Many endangered
animals is near with extinction.
_ Climate change makes higher possibility of forest fire
_ Climate change makes difficulty to the process of conservation.
The ecosystem of forests will be seriously damaged; this leads to the extinction of
some animals.
 Fishery
The change in temperature, seawater salinity, as well as natural disaster will make
dramatic impact to fishery of Vietnam
The rise in temperature and sea level, with the change in rainfall shall make the
marine ecosystem of Vietnam vulnerable. Biological diversity of coastal and fish
resource shall be decreased. Important coastal ecosystem is degraded and narrowed.
Archipelagoes have tended to get apart from the shore due to changes in structure of
coastal circulation. Moreover, river – sea interaction changed dramatically, these make
the loss up to 60% of natural residence.
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The rise of sea level also makes impact to coastal land of Vietnam, especially the
mangrove area in Ca Mau, Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and Nam Dinh.
Environment degradation and severe weather caused the outbreaks of dangerous
fishery diseases. For example, white spots disease (WSD) of shrimp in Cuu Long River
delta in 2000-2001, lobster disease in the Middle in 2009-2010, hepatopancreas disease
of brackish shrimp over the nation in 2011-2012 … All these disease cause numerous
damage to the fishery of Vietnam
Moreover, increase in number and severity of unpredictable and major disasters on the
sea also make danger to fishermen. Unexpected storm, tsunami or earthquake can
threaten the life of fishermen.
Real figures:
According to Climate change Working Group, in Research in observation of
vulnerabilities from climate change (10/1/2013), Vietnam stands the first position on
group of nations that have fishery loss by climate change at alarming level. Loss of
Vietnam was 1.5 billion dollar in 2010 and this figure is predicted to go up to 25 billion
dollar in 2030. According to Mr. Nguyen Quang Thanh, Live and Learn Centre
Vietnam, in 2030 the loss from climate change will raise to 11% Vietnam’s GDP
In the middle of 2013, Vietnam had 480,000 people having career in fishery, 100,000
people work in seafood processing, and 2,140,000 people involve in aquatic service.
Aquatic livelihood, consist of fishing and fish farming, are those which depend on
water source and coastal resources abundance, by that become one of the most
sensitive and vulnerable to impact of climate change.
Especially, loss in fish farming tends to increase in recent years by impact of rising in
sea level, drought, saltwater intrusion, unseasonal rain and flood, changing in water
environment. Loss of fish farming in some typical provinces have already rose to 34-
40%/ year, namely Bac Lieu, Ben Tre, Ca Mau…
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b. Impact of climate change on industry sector
Industries, especially coastal industrial parks, will be seriously affected by climate
As prediction, Vietnam’s sea level will rise by 1m at the end of 21
century, and that
will make almost industrial park flooded, with the level varying from 10% to 67% of
the area
Material resources for industries, especially materials for foodstuff processing industry,
textile, clothing will be greatly harmed because it will meet the shortage of supplying
from the Cuu Long River Delta, which suffered dramatic loss from climate change in
Vietnam. This puts heavier pressure to the progress of restructuring industries, which
targets forms of industry and proportion of highly technological industries.
Rising temperature leads to rising in energy consuming of industries, by increasing
cost of winding system, cooling the factory This will reduce the productivity and
profit of factories.
Electricity consumption for household and firms increases sharply and makes pressure
to electricity producing industry. Unexpected and serious disasters have negative
influence to the progress of operating and extracting the electricity transmission and
distribution system, rigs, pipeline, causes increases in cost of maintaining energy
c. .Impacts of climate change on tourism sector
Vietnam is in favor of a natural coastline, many islands and rich in natural resources;
Marine ecosystems are distributed primarily along the inshore territorial sea and
include coral reefs marine algae and mangrove forests.
The inherent value that aforementioned are suitable for the development of clusters or
concentrated tourist resorts with diverse types as eco-tourism, science, diving,
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swimming, sports, entertainment, relaxation, healing, adventure and excursions, diving
tour Today, types of marine tourism began to develop in Nha Trang based on
exploiting the value of coral reefs services. Besides, our country also has the advantage
of marine tourism development due to the open sea, long coastline and many islands
with monsoon tropical climate, beautiful beaches, rich in biodiversity, beautiful
landscapes, and historic sites along the coast.
Along the coastal areas in our country it have been identified that about 126 beaches
can hold tens to hundreds of thousand people, of which there is about 20 beaches
achieved international standards, 16km long. That is not to mention the hundreds of
small beaches, beautiful, located along bays, quiet pool and near uninhabited island of
the archipelago in the northwest of Tonkin Gulf, Cat Ba Archipelago, Cu Lao Cham
island group of, Hon Mun, Ly Son, Con Dao, Phu Quoc. Although guests capacity is
not large enough, but very suitable for the type picnic, and excursions of small group
of nature-loving tourists.
According to a recent analysis on the impacts of climate change, tourism sector and
economic development in Vietnam are facing serious threats from climate change
within 30 following years.
The 2013 research of Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment in in
Vietnam shows that in addition to the heavy pollution, climate change continues to
destroy 110,000 hectares of of coral reefs in Vietnam, only 14.5% of the 110,000
hectares of these coral reefs are in good condition. Meanwhile, according to the
Vietnam Institute of Research and Development, extreme weather phenomenon caused
by climate change could significantly reduce revenue from marine tourism accounts for
more than 70% of total revenue from the maritime economy.
The scientists warned in 2020, rising sea levels could inundate about 30% Hoi An
town. Da Nang is also facing the impact of climate change including floods and
saltwater intrusion.
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Forecast for the year of 2050, sea level will rise by 33cm in Vietnam and by 2070 will
increase more 50cm than current sea level. This is a huge risk for coastal provinces of
in Vietnam. Hence there is a need to make a strategic planning and countermeasures
such as : improving flood control, reorganization of water supply systems for coastal
neighborhoods, especially beach resorts.
Those warnings directly affect the lives of all of us. Especially food will become more
scarce. For the tourism industry, due to the cost of living increases and higher risk
when traveling will reduce the need for tourism that will circumscribe the development
of tourism.
d. Impacts of climate change in components of the economy.
 Climate changes’ impacts on Vietnam material facilities
Vietnam, which is located in the tropical and temperate zone, has 3000km of
seashore. That is the reason why Vietnam, especially the Vietnam material
facilities, seems to be extremely sensative to the climate change.
According to tidal gauges along Vietnam coast, the sea level rise was at the rate of
about 3mm/year during the period of 1993-2008. In fact, in the past 50 years, sea level
at Hon Dau station rose about 20 cm ( NTP, MONRE, 2008) . This, together with the
decreasing rainfall , caused the devastating effects to the means of fresh water
distribution, raised the trend of sea water penetration. As a result, in some maritime
cities, the traffic ,daily life and the production process was outrageously hindered. For
example, the base and structure of many trainlines, highways, airports were damaged.
Many harbours, including gangways ,warehouses, which were designed for the 20

centery sea level must be repaired, or even rebuilt. The newly-built works might cost
much more money for construction and operattion.
During the last five decades ( 1958 – 2007) , the annual average temperature in
vietnam increased about 0.5 to 0.7 ‘C. This makes the machine maintenance become a
very hard work, especially in the hot summer days. An immense amount of money
required to be spent on the means of ventilation for their setup and operation. In
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addition, the continue rising heat also opened up avenue for fire and exloration. From
15/11/2012 to 15/11/2013, there were 2.5 thousand fires, 65 devastating exploration
which has left 127 people dead and 339 injured,caused 1.6 trilition VND loss.
From 1989 to 2010 , climate change caused many devastating different types of
disasters to Vietnam, Flood is the most reported with 48% of the total datacards
or records. Following floods, the most reported events are hailstorms (20%), storms
(13%) and flash floods (7%). Cyclones (typhoons), landslides, heavy rain and
other events combined account for 12% of the reported events in the historical
disaster database for this period. Over this same period, the provinces with the most
houses destroyed and damaged due to all disaster types are Quang Binh - with
331,055 houses destroyed and damaged, Thanh Hoa with 103,646 and Ha Tinh with
96,172. The province with the most houses destroyed is Thanh Hoa (97,383 houses)
while the province with the most houses damaged is Quang Binh. The most
impacted regions are the North Central and the Mekong River Delta.
In the year of 2013, Vietnam was subject to 15 powerfull , unpredictable typhoons,
which cause serious damage to people and facilities. According to the locals reports,
313 people were listed as missing and dead, 1.150 people were injured, 6.4 thousand
houses and building were destroyed, 88.2 km Dyke and 894 km road broke down.
Total damage in 2013 was 30 trillion VND, which was twice as much as the 2012.
 Climate changes’ impacts on Vietnamese Health
Viet Nam is a country with the S shape and has more than 3000km of land in contact
with South China Sea, not to mention Viet Nam is also a tropical monsoon climate
country, that is the reason why Viet Nam is one of the five developing country which is
most affected by climate change. This means the life of Vietnamese people is directly
impacted by the changing climate.
_ From the adverse impact on human health
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