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Tài liệu Resource-Rich Provinces Will Continue To Drive Sales Gains In Canada ppt





Carlos Gomes (416) 866-4735
carlos.gomes@scotiabank.com
Global Economic Research
Global

Auto

Report

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Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are
subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been
compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or
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Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable.

C
anadian auto sales climbed 6% last year, and will likely edge up
further in 2013, advancing to 1.69 million units — the second-
highest level on record. The resource-rich provinces of Alberta,
Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador will continue to lead
gains. Purchases in these provinces set record highs in 2012, climbing
above the 2007 peak. In contrast, even with a moderate gain this year,
volumes in the rest of Canada will remain 6% below the 2002 peak.
Labour markets, demographic trends and development activity are
strongest in Western Canada, while a ramp-up of several projects on the east
coast will support regional gains. Commodity prices have rebounded since
last summer, and will be underpinned over the coming year by the recent
pick-up of economic growth in China and improving global financial market
conditions. Global equity markets have advanced by more than 20% since
mid-2012, including 5% during the first four weeks of 2013.
Alberta will be the auto industry’s growth leader in 2013. Vehicle sales in Alberta climbed to 239,000 units
last year — the second-highest on record. We expect volumes to advance to 244,000 units in 2013, approaching
the 2007 peak of 249,000 cars and light trucks. Sales will be bolstered by a buoyant labour market, record
population inflows and a continuing, albeit single-digit increase in energy sector investments. Unemployment in
Alberta has dropped to only 4.5% — the lowest level in Canada and nearly 3 percentage points below the national
average. Meanwhile, population growth accelerated to 2.5% last year — nearly triple the advance in the rest of
Canada. Alberta’s driving-age population is increasing at even a faster pace. Despite these positive developments,
the improvement in vehicle sales will be dampened by some slowing in energy sector investment. The export
price for Canadian heavy crude has fallen to a substantial discount from international benchmark prices due to
export pipeline constraints. The sharp widening in the discount for Canadian heavy crude oil is hurting Alberta’s
public finances, prompting its premier to warn last week of a $6 bn revenue shortfall for the 2013-14 fiscal year.
Vehicle sales in Saskatchewan climbed to a record-high 55,000 units in 2012, buoyed by a solid gain in farm
incomes and ongoing expansion of the mineral sector. An increase in purchases to 56,000 units is projected for
2013, bolstered by the government of Saskatchewan’s commitment to spent at least $2.5 bn on infrastructure over
the next several years and the scheduled start-up of the Cigar Lake uranium mine in late 2013. Despite declining
mineral and natural gas production in Saskatchewan over the past year, the province still expects investments of
nearly $45 billion in major resource projects over the next decade — a development which will keep labour and
auto markets among the strongest in Canada.
Newfoundland & Labrador also reported record car and light truck sales in 2012, with volumes jumping to
33,000 units — 29% above the 2001-08 average. Purchases will be boosted this year by a rebound in offshore oil
production and increased iron ore output. After weakening in the first half of 2012 alongside slowing global
economic activity, China’s imports of iron ore jumped to record highs late last year, setting the stage for higher
prices and a ramp-up in iron ore production across Newfoundland in 2013. Oil output is also set to rebound, with
production resuming at both the Sea Rose and Terra Nova projects, after being offline for maintenance last year.
However, longer-term gains in car and light trucks sales will be constrained by weak vehicle-buying
demographics in Newfoundland. In fact, the demographic outlook is worse for the province than for its Maritime
Resource-Rich Provinces Will Continue To Drive Sales Gains In Canada
January 30, 2013


1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
200
250
300
350
400
00 02 04 06 08 10 12
thousands of units
Vehicle Sales
Resource-Rich
Provinces*
(LHS)
Rest of Canada
(RHS)
forecast
millions of units
* Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland & Labrador.
Record Sales
In Resource-Rich Provinces


2
Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report
January 30, 2013
neighbours. The vehicle-buying population in Newfoundland &
Labrador declined by 0.2% last year and is projected to slump
0.5% annually over the next five years. In contrast, the number
of potential vehicle buyers across Atlantic Canada is projected
to continue to edge higher.
Vehicle sales in Manitoba advanced 6% last year, in line
with the improvement across Canada. We expect a further
modest gain in 2013, underpinned by increased agricultural and
construction activity. The value of building permits in Manitoba
jumped by nearly 30% last year, nearly three times the advance
in the national average. A gradual pick-up in global demand for
the province’s diversified exports will also support further gains
in auto sales. In particular, aerospace shipments in Manitoba
surged 20% last year, outpacing gains in other sectors.
Vehicle sales in British Columbia rose 10% last year to
173,000 units — the highest level since 2008. Volumes will be
supported over the coming year by rising exports to Asia — the
destination for more than 40% of the province’s international
shipments — and the ongoing revival in the U.S. housing
market. However, despite an improving external environment,
offshore exports account for less than one-quarter of overall
economic activity in B.C. Households are the key drivers of the
economy, accounting for 62% of overall activity — nearly 7
percentage points above the national average. In particular, we
expect a slowing labour market and declining residential real
estate prices to weigh on consumer confidence — British
Columbians were the most upbeat Canadians in late 2012 —
limiting the gain in vehicle sales to less than 1%.
Car and light truck purchases in Ontario jumped above
600,000 units last year for the first time since 2006, led by a
9% increase in fleet purchases. Household volumes improved a
more moderate 4%, but set a decade high of 530,000 last year.
Further modest gains are expected in 2013, as the ongoing
improvement in manufacturing — led by a revival in the auto
sector — more than offsets restraint from both the federal and
provincial governments. The auto parts sector led Ontario’s
manufacturing employment growth last year, advancing by 5%
— the strongest increase since the turn of the millennium.
Further gains are scheduled for 2013, as vehicle production
strengthens to 2.6 million units — the highest level since 2005.
Quebec’s auto market lagged last year, with volumes
advancing by only 1% alongside sluggish employment growth
and increased taxes. Purchases are expected to edge up to
417,000 units in 2013, supported by rising private sector
investment and a modest improvement in the key aerospace
sector. The largest aerospace company in Quebec recently
announced a near-doubling in aircraft orders last year, and
employment in the sector has begun to reverse a four-year slide.
The increase in vehicle sales across New Brunswick was
also smaller than the national average. However, last year’s 1%
advance was enough to lift sales to a decade high of 39,000
units. Further gains will be supported over the coming year by
rising exports to the United States. Cross-border shipments are
the main driver of the provincial economy, with international
and inter-provincial exports accounting for nearly 80% of
overall economic activity. Increased potash production,
following the completion of a $1.7 bn investment, combined
with rising lumber exports to the U.S. will boost provincial
spending and help lift vehicle sales to 40,000 units in 2013.
Nova Scotia posted a 7% advance in vehicle sales last
year to 48,000 units. A further small improvement will be
underpinned by expansion of the Halifax Shipyard to
accommodate the building of combat ships starting in 2015.
Several other projects, including construction of the Halifax
Convention Centre, will also boost employment and vehicle
purchases in the coming year.
International Car Sales Outlook
1990-99 2000-09 2010 2011 2012e 2013f
TOTAL SALES 39.20 49.64 56.82 58.89 61.87 64.47
North America* 16.36 18.38 13.96 15.22 17.07 17.72
Canada 1.27 1.59 1.56 1.59 1.68 1.69
United States 14.55 15.79 11.55 12.73 14.40 15.00
Mexico 0.54 1.00 0.85 0.90 0.99 1.03
Western Europe 13.11 14.39 12.98 12.80 11.76 11.76
Germany 3.57 3.33 2.92 3.17 3.08 3.14
Eastern Europe 1.18 2.71 3.14 3.90 4.25 4.50
Rus sia 0.78 1.53 1.91 2.65 2.93 3.08
Asia 6.91 11.64 22.47 22.50 24.02 25.46
China 0.43 3.56 9.41 10.04 10.65 11.75
India 0.31 0.89 1.87 1.95 2.05 2.15
South America 1.64 2.52 4.27 4.47 4.77 5.03
Brazil 0.94 1.57 2.69 2.64 2.84 2.98

*Includes light trucks.
(millions of units)

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Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report

January 30, 2013
Canada/U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Outlook
Vehicle Sales Outlook By Province*
1991-05 2006-09 2010 2011
2012e 2013f
Average
CANADA 1,398 1,592 1,557 1,589 1,677 1,690
Cars 797 841 711 691 760 767
Domestic 583 527 394 433 470 475
Transplants 178 278 235 257 280 282
Imports 214 314 317 258 290 292
Light Trucks 601 751 846 898 917 923
UNITED STATES 15.5 14.0 11.6 12.7 14.4 15.0
Cars 8.3 6.9 5.7 6.1 7.2 7.6
Light Trucks 7.2 7.1 5.9 6.6 7.2 7.4
NORTH AMERICAN
PRODUCTION* 15.58 13.25 12.15 13.46 15.77 16.48
CANADA 2.50 2.18 2.07 2.13 2.46 2.60
UNITED STATES 11.67 9.10 7.74 8.64 10.30 10.70
MEXICO 1.41 1.97 2.34 2.69 3.01 3.18

*Includes transplants; light, medium and heavy trucks. **U.S. sales and North American production to November.
(millions of units, annualized)
(millions of units, annualized)
(thousands of units, annualized)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Ontario
Quebec
Includes cars and trucks (light, medium and heavy).
Shaded bars indicate U.S. recession periods.
thousands of units
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
British
Columbia
Atlantic
thousands of units
Alberta
20
30
40
50
60
70
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
thousands of units
1994-05 2006-09 2010 2011 2012e 2013f
Average
CANADA 1,446 1,592 1,557 1,589 1,677 1,690
ATLANTIC 102 117 122 119 126 128

CENTRAL 936 983 990 997 1,034 1,038
Quebec 366 406 414 408 416 417
Ontario 570 577 576 589 618 621
WEST 408 492 445 473 517 524
Manitoba 42 44 44 47 50 50
Saskatchewan 36 44 46 50 55 56
Alberta 166 225 200 218 239 244
British Columbia 164 179 155 158 173 174

*Includes cars and light trucks.
(thousands of units, annual rates)

4
Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report

January 30, 2013
Auto Market Share By Manufacturer — Canada*
Truck Market Share By Manufacturer — Canada*
Units % of Total Units % of Total Units % of Total Units % of Total
TOTAL 693.6 100.0 760.0 100.0 46.0 100.0 48.0 100.0
Big Three 179.5 25.9 182.6 24.0 9.3 20.1 10.4 21.8
General Motors 77.6 11.2 72.0 9.5 4.4 9.5 4.0 8.3
Ford 69.9 10.1 68.1 8.9 3.5 7.6 3.6 7.6
Chrysler 32.0 4.6 42.5 5.6 1.4 3.0 2.8 5.9
Japanese 283.8 40.9 317.6 41.8 23.2 50.6 22.2 46.2
Honda 73.2 10.6 87.1 11.5 6.9 14.9 9.1 19.0
Toyota 85.3 12.3 106.6 14.0 6.9 15.1 6.2 12.8
Nis san 46.7 6.7 42.5 5.6 3.2 6.9 2.1 4.4
Mazda 56.8 8.2 55.4 7.3 3.8 8.4 2.6 5.4
Mitsubishi 7.3 1.1 8.0 1.0 0.8 1.8 0.8 1.6
Subaru 10.8 1.6 14.4 1.9 1.3 2.9 1.2 2.5

Hyundai 89.2 12.9 96.9 12.8 4.7 10.1 5.2 10.8
Volkswagen 44.8 6.4 50.9 6.7 3.0 6.4 3.3 6.9
Kia 40.8 5.9 54.7 7.2 2.1 4.5 2.4 5.1
BMW 20.4 2.9 21.2 2.8 1.4 3.2 1.7 3.5
Mercedes-Benz 19.9 2.9 20.1 2.6 1.6 3.5 1.9 3.9
Other 15.2 2.2 16.0 2.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 1.8

*Source: Dealer sales from the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada.
Jan to Dec Dec DecJan to Dec
(thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)
2011
2012 2011 2012
Units % of Total Units % of Total Units % ot Total Units % of Total
TOTAL 924.5 100.0 954.9 100.0 72.1 100.0 63.4 100.0
Big Three 570.3 61.7 564.2 59.1 43.0 59.7 35.8 56.5
General Motors 165.2 17.9 154.9 16.2 13.9 19.3 10.6 16.8
Ford 206.1 22.3 208.0 21.8 15.9 22.0 13.3 20.9
Chrysler 199.0 21.5 201.3 21.1 13.2 18.4 11.9 18.8
Other Domestic 34.9 3.8 41.6 4.4 3.8 5.2 2.8 4.4
Japanese 195.3 21.1 221.4 23.2 16.9 23.5 15.6 24.6
Honda 49.9 5.4 61.6 6.5 4.2 5.8 4.1 6.4
Toyota 77.0 8.3 85.4 8.9 6.8 9.4 6.0 9.5
Nissan 38.0 4.1 39.7 4.2 3.5 4.8 2.8 4.4
Mazda 12.4 1.3 16.3 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.5
Mitsubishi 13.2 1.4 11.7 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.5
Subaru 16.2 1.8 16.6 1.7 1.1 1.6 1.6 2.5

Hyundai 40.0 4.3 39.3 4.1 1.8 2.5 2.7 4.2
Kia 24.3 2.6 23.1 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.4
Other Imports 59.7 6.5 65.3 6.8 5.2 7.2 5.0 7.9

LIGHT TRUCKS 894.9 96.8 917.1 96.0 68.7 95.4 60.6 95.6

*Source: Dealer sales from the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada.
Jan to Dec Dec DecJan to Dec
(thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)
2011
2012 2011 2012

5
Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report

January 30, 2013
Auto Sales By Province
Truck Sales By Province*
2011 2012 2011 2012
Jan to Nov Jan to Nov Nov Nov
CANADA 645.4 710.9 50.8 55.0

ATLANTIC 51.7 58.4 3.7 4.4
Newfoundland 11.7 13.4 0.8 0.9
Nova Scotia 22.0 24.4 1.6 1.9
New Brunswick 15.4 17.4 1.1 1.3
Prince Edward Is land 2.6 3.2 0.2 0.3

CENTRAL 458.5 500.5 36.9 39.7
Quebec 212.5 227.0 16.9 18.4
Ontario 246.0 273.5 20.0 21.3

WEST 135.2 152.0 10.2 10.9
Manitoba 14.7 16.1 1.1 1.2
Saskatchewan 11.1 12.5 0.8 0.9
Alberta 49.7 55.4 3.8 3.7
British Columbia 59.7 68.0 4.5 5.1
(thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)
2011 2012 2011 2012
Jan to Nov Jan to Nov Nov Nov
CANADA 857.3 893.9 73.7 73.9

ATLANTIC 62.2 63.2 5.2 4.8
Newfoundland 17.2 18.4 1.5 1.4
Nova Scotia 20.8 21.5 1.8 1.7
New Brunswick 21.4 20.3 1.7 1.5
Prince Edward Is land 2.8 3.0 0.2 0.2

CENTRAL 485.1 489.1 40.1 40.1
Quebec 172.9 172.3 14.0 13.5
Ontario 312.2 316.8 26.1 26.6

WEST 310.0 341.6 28.4 29.0
Manitoba 30.0 32.3 2.6 2.6
Saskatchewan 35.7 39.8 3.2 3.4
Alberta 156.5 174.5 14.9 15.4
British Columbia 87.8 95.0 7.7 7.6

*Light, medium and heavy trucks.
(thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)

6
Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report

January 30, 2013
Canada — Motor Vehicle Production

Canada — World Auto Trade Balances

Canadian Motor Vehicle Production*
2011 2012 2011 2012
Jan to Dec Jan to Dec Dec Dec
TOTAL 2,135.1 2,463.7 173.5 151.0

CAR 990.5 1,040.4 77.3 67.5
Chrysler 194.6 240.2 15.8 16.5
Ford 76.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
GM 317.9 319.6 23.3 19.9
Honda 179.9 226.4 21.0 15.3
Toyota 221.6 254.2 17.2 15.8
TRUCKS** 1,144.6 1,423.3 96.2 83.5
CAMI (GM/Suzuki) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chrysler 301.5 345.7 26.3 21.7
Ford 243.9 255.9 18.9 17.9
GM 343.9 363.5 26.3 20.6
Honda 54.1 183.6 5.3 10.5
Toyota 191.3 265.0 18.5 11.9
Others 9.9 9.6 0.9 0.9

*Production data from Ward’s Automotive Reports. **Light, medium and heavy trucks.
(thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
quarterly
Total
Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rates.
* Light, medium and heavy trucks.
Cars
Trucks*
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
billions of dollars
Assembled vehicles
Total
Parts
2012 data are January-November annualized.

7
Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report

January 30, 2013
Scotiabank Car Price Indicators — Canada
Scotiabank Car Price Indicators — Canada
Scotiabank Car Price Indicators — United States
New & Used Car Prices
-15
-5
5
15
25
-15
-5
5
15
25
79 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Used*
* Scotiabank estimate from Canadian Black Book data.
CPI
New
year-over-year per cent change
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
79 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
1 Year
Scotiabank estimate from Canadian Black Book data.
4 Year
thousands of dollars by age of car, seasonally adjusted
2 Year
-15
-5
5
15
25
-15
-5
5
15
25
79 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Consumer price indices for new and used cars.
Shaded areas indicate recession periods.
Used
New
year-over-year per cent change
CPI

8
Global Economic Research
Global Auto Report

January 30, 2013
Retail Auto Dealer Bankruptcies
Canadian Corporate Financial Performance

Motor Vehicle Dealers and Repair Shops
Net Income Pre-Tax Inventory Interest Debt/ Return on
After Tax Profit Turnover Coverage Equity Shareholders
($ mil) Margin (%) Ratio Ratio Ratio Equity (%)
Annual 1999 487 0.82 6.83 2.31 2.41 9.58
2000 400 0.75 6.79 2.10 2.02 6.46
2001 521 0.75 7.06 2.13 1.98 8.37
2002 773 1.02 7.48 3.09 2.04 11.28
2003 594 0.91 5.30 2.65 2.91 10.14
2004 571 0.69 4.98 2.25 3.17 10.49
2005 799 0.93 5.35 2.55 2.74 12.90
2006 942 1.20 5.16 2.64 2.75 14.37
2007 1089 1.41 5.05 3.36 2.56 15.13
2008 1142 1.43 5.04 3.51 2.44 14.66
2009 1392 1.84 5.34 4.85 2.07 16.99
2010 1645 2.05 4.98 5.33 2.15 18.61
2011 1939 2.21 4.91 5.08 1.77 17.65
Quarterly at annual rates
2011Q3 1816 1.89 5.01 4.08 1.75 16.19
Q4 2948 3.20 5.20 6.05 1.58 24.19
2012Q1 2396 2.73 4.39 5.53 1.74 19.98
Q2 2772 2.86 4.79 6.33 1.68 22.33
Q3 2296 2.40 4.88 5.28 1.52 17.54
Average (89-11) 686 1.14 6.20 2.79 2.39 10.78
Low (89-11) -68 0.10 4.30 1.10 3.57 -1.20

Definition of Ratios: Interest Coverage Ratio: (pre-tax income and interest payments)/(interest payments)
Pre-tax Prof it Margin: pre-tax income/sales Debt/Equity Ratio: (short-term and long-term debt)/total equity
Inventory Turnover Ratio: sales/inventory Return of Shareholders’ Equity: after-tax income/total equity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
New car dealers only; cumulative total during the year.
number of bankruptcies
2012
2010
2011

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