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World enery outlook

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

World Energy and
Environmental Outlook to 2030
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
Head, Economic Analysis Division


Global Energy and
Environmental Trends
- Reference Scenario -


World Primary Energy Demand
7 000
6 000

Oil

Mtoe


5 000

Natural gas

4 000
3 000

Coal

2 000

Other renewables
Nuclear power
Hydro power

1 000
0
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy
demand between now and 2030


Increase in World Primary Energy
Production by Region
6 000


share of total increase (%)

85%

5 000

Mtoe

4 000

59%

3 000
2 000

31%

1 000

10%

12%
3%

0
1971-2002
OECD

Transition economies

2002-2030
Developing countries

Almost all the increase in production to 2030
occurs outside the OECD


Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030

Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries


Electricity Deprivation

In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be
1.4 billion people without electricity.


World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and
developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s


CO2 Emissions by Sector,
1990-2030
18 000

million tonnes of CO 2

16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1990
Power Generation

2002

2010

Other Transformation

2020
Industry

Transport

2030
Other Sectors

CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are
expected to increase the most


Growth in World Energy Demand
and CO2 Emissions

average annual growth rate

2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1971-2002
Primary energy demand

2002-2030
CO2 Emissions

Average carbon content of primary energy increases
slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends


World Alternative
Policy Scenario


World Alternative Policy Scenario
 Analyses impact of new environmental & energysecurity policies worldwide
 OECD: Policies currently under consideration
 Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy

intensity resulting from faster deployment of moreefficient technology

 Impact on energy, CO2 emissions & investment
needs
 Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as
for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change


Reduction in World Oil Demand in the
Alternative vs. Reference Scenario, 2030
Power generation
8%

Other
4%

Residential and
services
11%

Industry
13%

Transport
64%

Oil savings = 12.8 mb/d

Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the combined
current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria


Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030
600

bcm

400

200

0
OECD North
America

OECD Europe

Reference Scenario

OECD Asia

China

Alternative Scenario

Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions,
except China


OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference
and Alternative Scenarios
16 000

Mt of CO 2

15 000
14 000
13 000
12 000
11 000
1990

2000
Reference Scenario

2010

2020

2030

Alternative Scenario

OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in
1990


Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction
2002-2030
100%

5%

10%
80%

60%

20%

4%

8%

12%
21%

21%

5%
17%

15%

7%

1%

7%
10%

40%

58%
20%

63%

67%

Transition economies

Developing countries

49%

0%
World

OECD

End-use efficiency gains
Fuel switching in end uses
Increased renewables in power generation
Increased nuclear in power generation
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than
half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%


Difference in Electricity Investment in
the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario
2003-2030

1 000

billion dollars (2000)

500

Efficiency
measures

0
- 500
-1 000

Additional demand-side
investment

Avoided supply-side
investment

Difference

Generation
Transmission

Distribution

-1 500
-2 000

Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by
lower investment on the supply side


Summary & Conclusions
 On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2
emissions – will be 60% higher in 2030 than now
 Policies under consideration & faster deployment of
technology could substantially save energy and
reduce emissions
 Larger capital needs on the demand side would be
entirely offset by lower investment needs on the
supply side
 Truly sustainable energy system will call for faster
technology development & deployment
 Urgent & decisive government action is needed



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